Kar Auction Services Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 17.50
| KAR Stock | USD 17.50 0.06 0.34% |
Closest to current price KAR long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
KAR |
KAR Auction Target Price Odds to finish over 17.50
The tendency of KAR Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 17.50 | 90 days | 17.50 | about 7.84 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of KAR Auction to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 7.84 (This KAR Auction Services probability density function shows the probability of KAR Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.55 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, KAR Auction will likely underperform. Additionally KAR Auction Services has an alpha of 0.21, implying that it can generate a 0.21 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). KAR Auction Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for KAR Auction
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KAR Auction Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KAR Auction's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
KAR Auction Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. KAR Auction is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the KAR Auction's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold KAR Auction Services, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of KAR Auction within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.21 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.55 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
KAR Auction Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of KAR Auction for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for KAR Auction Services can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.65 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (154.1 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 685.1 M. | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from fool.com.au: Why is this ASX 200 energy stock crashing 8 percent today |
KAR Auction Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of KAR Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential KAR Auction's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. KAR Auction's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 109.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 93.5 M |
KAR Auction Technical Analysis
KAR Auction's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. KAR Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of KAR Auction Services. In general, you should focus on analyzing KAR Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
KAR Auction Predictive Forecast Models
KAR Auction's time-series forecasting models is one of many KAR Auction's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary KAR Auction's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about KAR Auction Services
Checking the ongoing alerts about KAR Auction for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for KAR Auction Services help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.65 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (154.1 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 685.1 M. | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from fool.com.au: Why is this ASX 200 energy stock crashing 8 percent today |
Check out KAR Auction Backtesting, KAR Auction Valuation, KAR Auction Correlation, KAR Auction Hype Analysis, KAR Auction Volatility, KAR Auction History as well as KAR Auction Performance. Note that the KAR Auction Services information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other KAR Auction's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Complementary Tools for KAR Stock analysis
When running KAR Auction's price analysis, check to measure KAR Auction's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy KAR Auction is operating at the current time. Most of KAR Auction's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of KAR Auction's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move KAR Auction's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of KAR Auction to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is KAR Auction's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of KAR Auction. If investors know KAR will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about KAR Auction listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.85) | Earnings Share (1.83) | Revenue Per Share 15.079 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.05 | Return On Assets 0.0312 |
The market value of KAR Auction Services is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of KAR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of KAR Auction's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is KAR Auction's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because KAR Auction's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect KAR Auction's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between KAR Auction's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if KAR Auction is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, KAR Auction's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.