Microchip Technology Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 88.92

MCHP Stock  USD 89.71  0.52  0.58%   
Microchip Technology's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Microchip Technology. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Microchip Technology based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Microchip Technology over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $90.0 is a CALL option contract on Microchip Technology's common stock with a strick price of 90.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-28 at 15:40:29 for $2.45 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.5, and an ask price of $2.6. The implied volatility as of the 29th of March is 30.4. View All Microchip options

Closest to current price Microchip long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Microchip Technology's future price is the expected price of Microchip Technology instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Microchip Technology performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Microchip Technology Backtesting, Microchip Technology Valuation, Microchip Technology Correlation, Microchip Technology Hype Analysis, Microchip Technology Volatility, Microchip Technology History as well as Microchip Technology Performance.
To learn how to invest in Microchip Stock, please use our How to Invest in Microchip Technology guide.
  
At this time, Microchip Technology's Price Earnings Ratio is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 03/29/2024, Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to grow to 0.33, while Price To Book Ratio is likely to drop 3.79. Please specify Microchip Technology's target price for which you would like Microchip Technology odds to be computed.

Microchip Technology Target Price Odds to finish below 88.92

The tendency of Microchip Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 88.92  or more in 90 days
 89.71 90 days 88.92 
about 79.93
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Microchip Technology to drop to $ 88.92  or more in 90 days from now is about 79.93 (This Microchip Technology probability density function shows the probability of Microchip Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Microchip Technology price to stay between $ 88.92  and its current price of $89.71 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.25 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.79 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Microchip Technology will likely underperform. Additionally Microchip Technology has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Microchip Technology Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Microchip Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microchip Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Microchip Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
87.6789.6791.67
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
80.7492.6894.68
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
82.0884.0886.08
Details
26 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
88.4097.14107.83
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Microchip Technology. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Microchip Technology's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Microchip Technology's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Microchip Technology.

Microchip Technology Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Microchip Technology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Microchip Technology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Microchip Technology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Microchip Technology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.21
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.79
σ
Overall volatility
3.14
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Microchip Technology Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Microchip Technology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Microchip Technology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 8th of March 2024 Microchip Technology paid $ 0.45 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from zacks.com: Microchip Technology Declines More Than Market Some Information for Investors

Microchip Technology Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Microchip Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Microchip Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Microchip Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding557.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments234 M

Microchip Technology Technical Analysis

Microchip Technology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Microchip Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Microchip Technology. In general, you should focus on analyzing Microchip Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Microchip Technology Predictive Forecast Models

Microchip Technology's time-series forecasting models is one of many Microchip Technology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Microchip Technology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Microchip Technology

Checking the ongoing alerts about Microchip Technology for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Microchip Technology help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 8th of March 2024 Microchip Technology paid $ 0.45 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from zacks.com: Microchip Technology Declines More Than Market Some Information for Investors
When determining whether Microchip Technology is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Microchip Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Microchip Technology Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Microchip Technology Stock:
Check out Microchip Technology Backtesting, Microchip Technology Valuation, Microchip Technology Correlation, Microchip Technology Hype Analysis, Microchip Technology Volatility, Microchip Technology History as well as Microchip Technology Performance.
To learn how to invest in Microchip Stock, please use our How to Invest in Microchip Technology guide.
Note that the Microchip Technology information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Microchip Technology's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.

Complementary Tools for Microchip Stock analysis

When running Microchip Technology's price analysis, check to measure Microchip Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microchip Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Microchip Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microchip Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microchip Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microchip Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Microchip Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Microchip Technology. If investors know Microchip will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Microchip Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.26)
Dividend Share
1.59
Earnings Share
4.28
Revenue Per Share
15.7
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.19)
The market value of Microchip Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Microchip that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Microchip Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Microchip Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Microchip Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Microchip Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Microchip Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Microchip Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Microchip Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.