Mdc Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 39.57
| MDC Stock | USD 62.98 0.03 0.05% |
Closest to current price MDC long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
MDC |
MDC Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 39.57
The tendency of MDC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 39.57 or more in 90 days |
| 62.98 | 90 days | 39.57 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MDC Holdings to drop to $ 39.57 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This MDC Holdings probability density function shows the probability of MDC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MDC Holdings price to stay between $ 39.57 and its current price of $62.98 at the end of the 90-day period is about 65.65 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon MDC Holdings has a beta of 0.45. This indicates as returns on the market go up, MDC Holdings average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding MDC Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally MDC Holdings has an alpha of 0.2473, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). MDC Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MDC Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MDC Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MDC Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MDC Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MDC Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MDC Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MDC Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MDC Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.73 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
MDC Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MDC Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MDC Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MDC Holdings is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| MDC Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Duolingo set to join SP Midcap 400 Cable One to join SP SmallCap 600 |
MDC Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MDC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MDC Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MDC Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 75.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
MDC Holdings Technical Analysis
MDC Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MDC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MDC Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing MDC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MDC Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
MDC Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many MDC Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MDC Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MDC Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about MDC Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MDC Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MDC Holdings is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| MDC Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Duolingo set to join SP Midcap 400 Cable One to join SP SmallCap 600 |
Check out MDC Holdings Backtesting, MDC Holdings Valuation, MDC Holdings Correlation, MDC Holdings Hype Analysis, MDC Holdings Volatility, MDC Holdings History as well as MDC Holdings Performance. For information on how to trade MDC Stock refer to our How to Trade MDC Stock guide.Note that the MDC Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other MDC Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for MDC Stock analysis
When running MDC Holdings' price analysis, check to measure MDC Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MDC Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of MDC Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MDC Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MDC Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MDC Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is MDC Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MDC Holdings. If investors know MDC will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MDC Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.439 | Dividend Share 2.15 | Earnings Share 5.29 | Revenue Per Share 63.164 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.11) |
The market value of MDC Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MDC that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MDC Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MDC Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MDC Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MDC Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MDC Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MDC Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MDC Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.