Mercadolibre Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 673.01
| MELI Stock | USD 1,416 28.26 1.96% |
Closest to current price MercadoLibre long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
MercadoLibre |
MercadoLibre Target Price Odds to finish over 673.01
The tendency of MercadoLibre Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 673.01 in 90 days |
| 1,416 | 90 days | 673.01 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MercadoLibre to stay above $ 673.01 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This MercadoLibre probability density function shows the probability of MercadoLibre Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MercadoLibre price to stay between $ 673.01 and its current price of $1415.88 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.11 . This indicates MercadoLibre market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, MercadoLibre is expected to follow. Additionally MercadoLibre has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. MercadoLibre Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MercadoLibre
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MercadoLibre. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MercadoLibre's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MercadoLibre Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MercadoLibre is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MercadoLibre's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MercadoLibre, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MercadoLibre within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.23 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 109.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
MercadoLibre Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MercadoLibre for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MercadoLibre can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MercadoLibre generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| MercadoLibre is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| MercadoLibre has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Looking At MercadoLibres Recent Unusual Options Activity |
MercadoLibre Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MercadoLibre Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MercadoLibre's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MercadoLibre's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 51 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.3 B |
MercadoLibre Technical Analysis
MercadoLibre's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MercadoLibre Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MercadoLibre. In general, you should focus on analyzing MercadoLibre Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MercadoLibre Predictive Forecast Models
MercadoLibre's time-series forecasting models is one of many MercadoLibre's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MercadoLibre's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MercadoLibre
Checking the ongoing alerts about MercadoLibre for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MercadoLibre help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MercadoLibre generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| MercadoLibre is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| MercadoLibre has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Looking At MercadoLibres Recent Unusual Options Activity |
Check out MercadoLibre Backtesting, MercadoLibre Valuation, MercadoLibre Correlation, MercadoLibre Hype Analysis, MercadoLibre Volatility, MercadoLibre History as well as MercadoLibre Performance. For more detail on how to invest in MercadoLibre Stock please use our How to Invest in MercadoLibre guide.You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
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When running MercadoLibre's price analysis, check to measure MercadoLibre's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MercadoLibre is operating at the current time. Most of MercadoLibre's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MercadoLibre's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MercadoLibre's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MercadoLibre to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is MercadoLibre's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MercadoLibre. If investors know MercadoLibre will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MercadoLibre listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.007 | Earnings Share 19.5 | Revenue Per Share 287.949 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.419 | Return On Assets 0.0866 |
The market value of MercadoLibre is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MercadoLibre that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MercadoLibre's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MercadoLibre's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MercadoLibre's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MercadoLibre's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MercadoLibre's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MercadoLibre is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MercadoLibre's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.