Migdal Insurance (Israel) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 387.6725

MGDL Stock  ILS 510.10  2.40  0.47%   
Migdal Insurance's future price is the expected price of Migdal Insurance instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Migdal Insurance performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Migdal Insurance Backtesting, Migdal Insurance Valuation, Migdal Insurance Correlation, Migdal Insurance Hype Analysis, Migdal Insurance Volatility, Migdal Insurance History as well as Migdal Insurance Performance.
  
Please specify Migdal Insurance's target price for which you would like Migdal Insurance odds to be computed.

Migdal Insurance Target Price Odds to finish over 387.6725

The tendency of Migdal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above S 387.67  in 90 days
 510.10 90 days 387.67 
more than 94.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Migdal Insurance to stay above S 387.67  in 90 days from now is more than 94.0 (This Migdal Insurance probability density function shows the probability of Migdal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Migdal Insurance price to stay between S 387.67  and its current price of S510.1 at the end of the 90-day period is more than 93.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Migdal Insurance has a beta of 0.64. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Migdal Insurance average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Migdal Insurance will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Migdal Insurance has an alpha of 0.2202, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Migdal Insurance Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Migdal Insurance

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Migdal Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Migdal Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
508.07510.10512.13
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
459.09607.02609.05
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
516.78518.81520.85
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
509.47511.53513.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Migdal Insurance. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Migdal Insurance's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Migdal Insurance's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Migdal Insurance.

Migdal Insurance Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Migdal Insurance is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Migdal Insurance's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Migdal Insurance, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Migdal Insurance within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.22
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.64
σ
Overall volatility
30.87
Ir
Information ratio 0.08

Migdal Insurance Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Migdal Insurance for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Migdal Insurance can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Migdal Insurance has accumulated S5.33 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings
About 64.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Migdal Insurance Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Migdal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Migdal Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Migdal Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.1 B

Migdal Insurance Technical Analysis

Migdal Insurance's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Migdal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Migdal Insurance. In general, you should focus on analyzing Migdal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Migdal Insurance Predictive Forecast Models

Migdal Insurance's time-series forecasting models is one of many Migdal Insurance's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Migdal Insurance's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Migdal Insurance

Checking the ongoing alerts about Migdal Insurance for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Migdal Insurance help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Migdal Insurance has accumulated S5.33 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings
About 64.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Check out Migdal Insurance Backtesting, Migdal Insurance Valuation, Migdal Insurance Correlation, Migdal Insurance Hype Analysis, Migdal Insurance Volatility, Migdal Insurance History as well as Migdal Insurance Performance.
You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.

Complementary Tools for Migdal Stock analysis

When running Migdal Insurance's price analysis, check to measure Migdal Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Migdal Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Migdal Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Migdal Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Migdal Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Migdal Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Migdal Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Migdal Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Migdal Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.