Merck Company Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 82.46

MRK Stock  USD 131.75  6.23  4.96%   
Merck's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Merck Company. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Merck based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Merck Company over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $132.0 is a CALL option contract on Merck's common stock with a strick price of 132.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:57:08 for $0.48 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.46, and an ask price of $0.56. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 21.66. View All Merck options

Closest to current price Merck long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Merck's future price is the expected price of Merck instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Merck Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Merck Backtesting, Merck Valuation, Merck Correlation, Merck Hype Analysis, Merck Volatility, Merck History as well as Merck Performance.
  
Price Earnings Ratio is expected to rise to 795.65 this year, although the value of Price To Sales Ratio will most likely fall to 4.30. Please specify Merck's target price for which you would like Merck odds to be computed.

Merck Target Price Odds to finish over 82.46

The tendency of Merck Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 82.46  in 90 days
 131.75 90 days 82.46 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Merck to stay above $ 82.46  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Merck Company probability density function shows the probability of Merck Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Merck Company price to stay between $ 82.46  and its current price of $131.75 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 96.0 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Merck has a beta of 0.72. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Merck average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Merck Company will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Merck Company has an alpha of 0.2409, implying that it can generate a 0.24 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Merck Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Merck

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merck Company. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merck's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
131.38132.39133.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
128.81129.82144.93
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
133.47134.48135.49
Details
28 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
106.65117.20130.09
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Merck. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Merck's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Merck's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Merck Company.

Merck Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Merck is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Merck's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Merck Company, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Merck within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.24
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.72
σ
Overall volatility
5.90
Ir
Information ratio 0.18

Merck Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Merck for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Merck Company can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Merck Company has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from ajc.com: Disposition of 6224 shares by Smart Dalton of Merck at 117.89 subject to Rule 16b-3

Merck Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Merck Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Merck's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Merck's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.5 B
Cash And Short Term Investments7.2 B

Merck Technical Analysis

Merck's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Merck Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Merck Company. In general, you should focus on analyzing Merck Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Merck Predictive Forecast Models

Merck's time-series forecasting models is one of many Merck's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Merck's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Merck Company

Checking the ongoing alerts about Merck for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Merck Company help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Merck Company has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from ajc.com: Disposition of 6224 shares by Smart Dalton of Merck at 117.89 subject to Rule 16b-3
When determining whether Merck Company is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Merck Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Merck Company Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Merck Company Stock:

Complementary Tools for Merck Stock analysis

When running Merck's price analysis, check to measure Merck's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merck is operating at the current time. Most of Merck's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merck's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merck's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merck to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
FinTech Suite
Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
USA ETFs
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Competition Analyzer
Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Efficient Frontier
Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market.
Is Merck's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merck. If investors know Merck will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Merck listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.453
Dividend Share
2.92
Earnings Share
0.14
Revenue Per Share
23.695
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.058
The market value of Merck Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Merck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Merck's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Merck's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Merck's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Merck's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merck's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Merck is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merck's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.