Merck Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 83.5

MRK -- USA Stock  

Quarterly Earning Report: October 29, 2019  

Merck probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Merck Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Merck time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Merck odds to be computed. Please see also Merck Backtesting, Merck Valuation, Merck Correlation, Merck Hype Analysis, Merck Volatility, Merck History as well as Merck Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Merck Target Price Odds to finish over 83.5

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 83.50  in 30 days
 84.69 30 days 83.50 
about 62.72
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Merck to stay above $ 83.50  in 30 days from now is about 62.72 (This Merck Company probability density function shows the probability of Merck Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Merck price to stay between $ 83.50  and its current price of $84.69 at the end of the 30-day period is about 28.92 .
Considering 30-days investment horizon, Merck has beta of 0.6981 indicating as returns on market go up, Merck average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Merck Company will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.066 implying that it can potentially generate 0.066% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Merck Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.07
β
Beta against DOW=0.70
σ
Overall volatility
=1.60
Ir
Information ratio =0.06

Merck Alerts and Suggestions

Merck has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial commitments
Over 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Merck exotic insider transaction detected

MerckPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out0.84%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.06
Short Percent Of Float0.83%
Float Shares2.56B
Shares Short Prior Month20.13M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day5.68M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month8.3M
Date Short InterestSeptember 30, 2019
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.42%
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