Microsoft Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 133.39

MSFT -- USA Stock  

USD 136.33  2.19  1.58%

Microsoft probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Microsoft Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Microsoft time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Microsoft odds to be computed. Please see also Microsoft Backtesting, Microsoft Valuation, Microsoft Correlation, Microsoft Hype Analysis, Microsoft Volatility, Microsoft History as well as Microsoft Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Microsoft Target Price Odds to finish below 133.39

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 133.39  or more in 30 days
 136.33 30 days 133.39 
ABOUT 6.88%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Microsoft to drop to $ 133.39  or more in 30 days from now is about 6.88% (This Microsoft Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Microsoft Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Microsoft price to stay between $ 133.39  and its current price of $136.33 at the end of the 30-day period is about 41.9%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Microsoft Corporation has beta of -0.1036 indicating as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Microsoft are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Microsoft Corporation is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0755 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0755% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Microsoft Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.08
β
Beta against DOW=0.1
σ
Overall volatility
=2.04
Ir
Information ratio =0.030217

Microsoft Alerts and Suggestions

Microsoft has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Microsoft exotic insider transaction detected

MicrosoftPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out0.64%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.84
Short Percent Of Float0.65%
Float Shares7.52B
Shares Short Prior Month49.7M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day21.91M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month24.05M
Date Short InterestAugust 15, 2019
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.34%
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