Meritage Homes Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 52.48

MTH -- USA Stock  

USD 70.53  0.12  0.17%

Meritage Homes probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Meritage Homes Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Meritage Homes time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Meritage Homes odds to be computed. Please see also Meritage Homes Backtesting, Meritage Homes Valuation, Meritage Homes Correlation, Meritage Homes Hype Analysis, Meritage Homes Volatility, Meritage Homes History as well as Meritage Homes Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Meritage Homes Target Price Odds to finish below 52.48

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 52.48  or more in 30 days
 70.53 30 days 52.48 
ABOUT 11.36%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Meritage Homes to drop to $ 52.48  or more in 30 days from now is about 11.36% (This Meritage Homes Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Meritage Homes Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Meritage Homes price to stay between $ 52.48  and its current price of $70.53 at the end of the 30-day period is about 83.87%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, Meritage Homes has beta of 0.599 indicating as returns on market go up, Meritage Homes average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Meritage Homes Corporation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.4632 implying that it can potentially generate 0.4632% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Meritage Homes Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.46
β
Beta against DOW=0.60
σ
Overall volatility
=6.27
Ir
Information ratio =0.17

Meritage Homes Alerts and Suggestions

Meritage Homes has accumulated $1.34 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings
Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Bona fide gift to Steven Davis of 2274 shares of Meritage Homes subject to Section 16

Meritage HomesPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out4.10%
Short Percent Of Float6.07%
Float Shares37.08M
Shares Short Prior Month972.42k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day566.55k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month535.43k
Date Short InterestAugust 15, 2019
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