NBT Bancorp Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 35.37

NBTB -- USA Stock  

USD 37.80  0.54  1.45%

NBT Bancorp probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of NBT Bancorp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify NBT Bancorp time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like NBT Bancorp odds to be computed. Please see also NBT Bancorp Backtesting, NBT Bancorp Valuation, NBT Bancorp Correlation, NBT Bancorp Hype Analysis, NBT Bancorp Volatility, NBT Bancorp History as well as NBT Bancorp Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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NBT Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish over 35.37

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 35.37  in 30 days
 37.80 30 days 35.37  OVER 95.9%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of NBT Bancorp to stay above $ 35.37  in 30 days from now is over 95.9% (This NBT Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of NBT Bancorp Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of NBT Bancorp price to stay between $ 35.37  and its current price of $37.8 at the end of the 30-day period is about 69.31%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, NBT Bancorp has beta of 0.8483 indicating as returns on market go up, NBT Bancorp average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding NBT Bancorp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. NBT Bancorp is significantly underperforming DOW.
 NBT Bancorp Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.01
β
Beta against DOW=0.85
σ
Overall volatility
=1.03
Ir
Information ratio =0.005

NBT BancorpPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out3.95%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.02
Short Percent Of Float5.50%
Float Shares42.98M
Shares Short Prior Month1.74M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day73.96k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month96.29k
Date Short InterestApril 30, 2019
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.71%
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