NATIONAL EXPRESS (UK) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 400.62

NEX -- UK Stock  

GBp 428.75  2.15  0.50%

NATIONAL EXPRESS probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of NATIONAL EXPRESS GROUP PLC ORD performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify NATIONAL EXPRESS time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like NATIONAL EXPRESS odds to be computed. Please see also NATIONAL EXPRESS Backtesting, NATIONAL EXPRESS Valuation, NATIONAL EXPRESS Correlation, NATIONAL EXPRESS Hype Analysis, NATIONAL EXPRESS Volatility, NATIONAL EXPRESS History as well as NATIONAL EXPRESS Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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NATIONAL EXPRESS Target Price Odds to finish over 400.62

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above p; 400.62  in 30 days
 428.75 30 days 400.62 
ABOUT 85.53%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of NATIONAL EXPRESS to stay above p; 400.62  in 30 days from now is about 85.53% (This NATIONAL EXPRESS GROUP PLC ORD probability density function shows the probability of NATIONAL EXPRESS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of NATIONAL EXPRESS price to stay between p; 400.62  and its current price of p;428.75 at the end of the 30-day period is about 77.63%.
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, NATIONAL EXPRESS GROUP PLC ORD has beta of -0.0027 indicating as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding NATIONAL EXPRESS are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, NATIONAL EXPRESS GROUP PLC ORD is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.2078 implying that it can potentially generate 0.2078% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 NATIONAL EXPRESS Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.21
β
Beta against DOW=0.0027
σ
Overall volatility
=11.38
Ir
Information ratio =0.20

NATIONAL EXPRESS Alerts and Suggestions

NATIONAL EXPRESS has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
The company has accumulated 1.49B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 132.8 indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. NATIONAL EXPRESS has Current Ratio of 0.45 indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due.

NATIONAL EXPRESSPrice Density Drivers

Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.15
Float Shares438.17M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day408.2k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month553.23k
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.04%
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