NIO Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 3.21

NIO -- USA Stock  

  Trading Volume Increase

NIO probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of NIO performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify NIO time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like NIO odds to be computed. Please see also NIO Backtesting, NIO Valuation, NIO Correlation, NIO Hype Analysis, NIO Volatility, NIO History as well as NIO Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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NIO Target Price Odds to finish below 3.21

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 3.21  after 30 days
 1.52 30 days 3.21 
about 84.95
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of NIO to stay under $ 3.21  after 30 days from now is about 84.95 (This NIO probability density function shows the probability of NIO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of NIO price to stay between its current price of $ 1.52  and $ 3.21  at the end of the 30-day period is about 74.32 .
Considering 30-days investment horizon, NIO has beta of -0.5863 indicating as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding NIO are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, NIO is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. NIO is significantly underperforming DOW.
 NIO Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.67
β
Beta against DOW=0.59
σ
Overall volatility
=0.74
Ir
Information ratio =0.06

NIO Alerts and Suggestions

NIO generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
NIO has high historical volatility and very poor performance
NIO may become a speculative penny stock
NIO has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
NIO has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial commitments
The company reported last year revenue of 230.37 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (3.43 B) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (255.88 M).
NUVEEN INS MUNI O has about 1.39 B in cash with (923.68 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.05 which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Roughly 53.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from www.marketwatch.com: Nios stock leans on bullish engulfing stock price chart pattern to stop further weakness - MarketWatch

NIOPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out16.47%
Float Shares630.02M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day31.07M
Shares Short Prior Month152.29M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month26.43M
Date Short InterestSeptember 30, 2019
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