Northrop Grumman Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 450.0

NOC Stock  USD 477.36  7.45  1.59%   
Northrop Grumman's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Northrop Grumman. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Northrop Grumman based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Northrop Grumman over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $475.0 is a CALL option contract on Northrop Grumman's common stock with a strick price of 475.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 14:43:42 for $2.21 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.1, and an ask price of $3.6. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 19.34. View All Northrop options

Closest to current price Northrop long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Northrop Grumman's future price is the expected price of Northrop Grumman instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Northrop Grumman performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Northrop Grumman Backtesting, Northrop Grumman Valuation, Northrop Grumman Correlation, Northrop Grumman Hype Analysis, Northrop Grumman Volatility, Northrop Grumman History as well as Northrop Grumman Performance.
For information on how to trade Northrop Stock refer to our How to Trade Northrop Stock guide.
  
At present, Northrop Grumman's Price To Sales Ratio is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price Book Value Ratio is expected to grow to 5.03, whereas Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is projected to grow to (0.57). Please specify Northrop Grumman's target price for which you would like Northrop Grumman odds to be computed.

Northrop Grumman Target Price Odds to finish over 450.0

The tendency of Northrop Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 450.00  in 90 days
 477.36 90 days 450.00 
about 80.96
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Northrop Grumman to stay above $ 450.00  in 90 days from now is about 80.96 (This Northrop Grumman probability density function shows the probability of Northrop Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Northrop Grumman price to stay between $ 450.00  and its current price of $477.36 at the end of the 90-day period is about 76.38 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Northrop Grumman has a beta of 0.0897. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Northrop Grumman average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Northrop Grumman will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Northrop Grumman has an alpha of 0.0502, implying that it can generate a 0.0502 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Northrop Grumman Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Northrop Grumman

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northrop Grumman. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northrop Grumman's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
476.30477.47478.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
429.62485.92487.09
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
486.51487.68488.85
Details
23 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
459.70505.17560.74
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Northrop Grumman. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Northrop Grumman's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Northrop Grumman's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Northrop Grumman.

Northrop Grumman Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Northrop Grumman is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Northrop Grumman's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Northrop Grumman, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Northrop Grumman within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.05
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.09
σ
Overall volatility
10.67
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Northrop Grumman Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Northrop Grumman for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Northrop Grumman can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 13th of March 2024 Northrop Grumman paid $ 1.87 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Spotlight on Boeing Analyzing the Surge in Options Activity

Northrop Grumman Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Northrop Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Northrop Grumman's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northrop Grumman's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding152 M
Cash And Short Term Investments3.1 B

Northrop Grumman Technical Analysis

Northrop Grumman's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Northrop Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Northrop Grumman. In general, you should focus on analyzing Northrop Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Northrop Grumman Predictive Forecast Models

Northrop Grumman's time-series forecasting models is one of many Northrop Grumman's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Northrop Grumman's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Northrop Grumman

Checking the ongoing alerts about Northrop Grumman for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Northrop Grumman help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 13th of March 2024 Northrop Grumman paid $ 1.87 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Spotlight on Boeing Analyzing the Surge in Options Activity
When determining whether Northrop Grumman offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Northrop Grumman's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Northrop Grumman Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Northrop Grumman Stock:

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When running Northrop Grumman's price analysis, check to measure Northrop Grumman's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northrop Grumman is operating at the current time. Most of Northrop Grumman's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northrop Grumman's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northrop Grumman's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northrop Grumman to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Northrop Grumman's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northrop Grumman. If investors know Northrop will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northrop Grumman listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.049
Dividend Share
7.34
Earnings Share
13.53
Revenue Per Share
259.34
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.06
The market value of Northrop Grumman is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northrop that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northrop Grumman's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northrop Grumman's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northrop Grumman's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northrop Grumman's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northrop Grumman's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Northrop Grumman is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northrop Grumman's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.