NOVARTIS Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 573.25

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NOVARTIND -- India Stock  

INR 563.85  1.00  0.18%

NOVARTIS INDIA probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

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NOVARTIS INDIA Target Price Odds to finish over 573.25

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over  573.25  or more in 30 days
 563.85 30 days 573.25 
about 41.46
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NOVARTIS INDIA to move over  573.25  or more in 30 days from now is about 41.46 (This NOVARTIS INDIA LTD probability density function shows the probability of NOVARTIS INDIA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD price to stay between its current price of  563.85  and  573.25  at the end of the 30-day period is about 8.0 .
Assuming the 30 trading days horizon, NOVARTIS INDIA has a beta of 0.2. This indicates as returns on the market go up, NOVARTIS INDIA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding NOVARTIS INDIA LTD will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.2632, implying that it can generate a 0.26 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 NOVARTIS INDIA Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.26
β
Beta against DOW=0.20
σ
Overall volatility
=46.48
Ir
Information ratio =0.043825

NOVARTIS INDIA Alerts and Suggestions

NOVARTIS INDIA LTD generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
N/A has accumulated about 6.33 B in cash with (231.4 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 256.75.
Roughly 72.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

NOVARTIS INDIAPrice Density Drivers

Trailing Annual Dividend Rate10.00
Float Shares6.28M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day20.24k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month15.15k
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.79%
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