Nrg Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 39.16
| NRG Stock | USD 72.61 1.12 1.57% |
Closest to current price NRG long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
NRG |
NRG Energy Target Price Odds to finish below 39.16
The tendency of NRG Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 39.16 or more in 90 days |
| 72.61 | 90 days | 39.16 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NRG Energy to drop to $ 39.16 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This NRG Energy probability density function shows the probability of NRG Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NRG Energy price to stay between $ 39.16 and its current price of $72.61 at the end of the 90-day period is about 91.43 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon NRG Energy has a beta of 0.61. This indicates as returns on the market go up, NRG Energy average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding NRG Energy will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally NRG Energy has an alpha of 0.432, implying that it can generate a 0.43 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). NRG Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for NRG Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NRG Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NRG Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NRG Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NRG Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NRG Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NRG Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NRG Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.43 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.23 |
NRG Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NRG Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NRG Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the last year's revenue of 28.82 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (202 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 4.1 B. | |
| NRG Energy has about 430 M in cash with (221 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.47. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Spotlight on NRG Energy Analyzing the Surge in Options Activity |
NRG Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of NRG Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential NRG Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NRG Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 228 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 541 M |
NRG Energy Technical Analysis
NRG Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NRG Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NRG Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing NRG Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NRG Energy Predictive Forecast Models
NRG Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many NRG Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NRG Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about NRG Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about NRG Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NRG Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 28.82 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (202 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 4.1 B. | |
| NRG Energy has about 430 M in cash with (221 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.47. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Spotlight on NRG Energy Analyzing the Surge in Options Activity |
Check out NRG Energy Backtesting, NRG Energy Valuation, NRG Energy Correlation, NRG Energy Hype Analysis, NRG Energy Volatility, NRG Energy History as well as NRG Energy Performance. For more detail on how to invest in NRG Stock please use our How to Invest in NRG Energy guide.You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
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When running NRG Energy's price analysis, check to measure NRG Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NRG Energy is operating at the current time. Most of NRG Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NRG Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NRG Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NRG Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is NRG Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NRG Energy. If investors know NRG will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NRG Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.946 | Dividend Share 1.54 | Earnings Share (1.12) | Revenue Per Share 126.417 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.13) |
The market value of NRG Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NRG that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NRG Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NRG Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NRG Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NRG Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NRG Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NRG Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NRG Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.