Novartis Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 85.97

NVS -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: December 31, 2019  

Novartis probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Novartis AG performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Novartis time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Novartis odds to be computed. Please see also Novartis Backtesting, Novartis Valuation, Novartis Correlation, Novartis Hype Analysis, Novartis Volatility, Novartis History as well as Novartis Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Novartis Target Price Odds to finish over 85.97

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 85.97  in 30 days
 92.53 30 days 85.97 
about 84.81
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Novartis to stay above $ 85.97  in 30 days from now is about 84.81 (This Novartis AG probability density function shows the probability of Novartis Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Novartis AG price to stay between $ 85.97  and its current price of $92.53 at the end of the 30-day period is about 82.79 .
Considering 30-days investment horizon, Novartis has beta of 0.4638 indicating as returns on market go up, Novartis average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Novartis AG will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0153 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0153% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Novartis Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.015283
β
Beta against DOW=0.46
σ
Overall volatility
=2.13
Ir
Information ratio =0.02

Novartis Alerts and Suggestions

The company has 30.12 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 57.2 . This implies that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Novartis AG has Current Ratio of 0.92 suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due.
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Sanofi to Buy U.S. Biotech Firm for 2.5 Billion in Cancer Push - Yahoo Finance

NovartisPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out0.12%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.89
Float Shares2.13B
Shares Short Prior Month3.31M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.49M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.72M
Date Short InterestNovember 15, 2019
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3.15%
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