Novartis Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 85.97

NVS -- USA Stock  

USD 84.44  0.53  0.63%

Novartis probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Novartis AG performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Novartis time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Novartis odds to be computed. Please see also Novartis Backtesting, Novartis Valuation, Novartis Correlation, Novartis Hype Analysis, Novartis Volatility, Novartis History as well as Novartis Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Novartis Target Price Odds to finish over 85.97

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 85.97  or more in 30 days
 84.44 30 days 85.97  ABOUT 44.72%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Novartis to move over $ 85.97  or more in 30 days from now is about 44.72% (This Novartis AG probability density function shows the probability of Novartis Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Novartis AG price to stay between its current price of $ 84.44  and $ 85.97  at the end of the 30-day period is about 9.29%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, Novartis AG has beta of -0.1013 indicating as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Novartis are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Novartis AG is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Novartis AG is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Novartis Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.22
β
Beta against DOW=0.1
σ
Overall volatility
=6.56
Ir
Information ratio =0.09

Novartis Alerts and Suggestions

Novartis AG generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
The company has $30.59 Billion in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing
The company has 30.59B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 64.6 . This implies that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Novartis AG has Current Ratio of 0.91 suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due.
On April 9, 2019 Novartis paid $ 11.59 per share dividend to its current shareholders

NovartisPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out0.09%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.89
Float Shares2.18B
Shares Short Prior Month2.86M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.61M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.6M
Date Short InterestApril 30, 2019
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3.51%
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