Aura Minerals Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.12
| ORA Stock | CAD 10.18 0.25 2.40% |
Aura |
Aura Minerals Target Price Odds to finish below 18.12
The tendency of Aura Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under C$ 18.12 after 90 days |
| 10.18 | 90 days | 18.12 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aura Minerals to stay under C$ 18.12 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Aura Minerals probability density function shows the probability of Aura Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aura Minerals price to stay between its current price of C$ 10.18 and C$ 18.12 at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.99 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Aura Minerals has a beta of 0.76. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Aura Minerals average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aura Minerals will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aura Minerals has an alpha of 0.1829, implying that it can generate a 0.18 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aura Minerals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aura Minerals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aura Minerals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aura Minerals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aura Minerals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aura Minerals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aura Minerals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aura Minerals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aura Minerals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.18 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.76 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.92 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Aura Minerals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aura Minerals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aura Minerals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 53.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Closing Bell Aura Minerals Inc down on Monday - The Globe and Mail |
Aura Minerals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aura Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aura Minerals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aura Minerals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 72.3 M |
Aura Minerals Technical Analysis
Aura Minerals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aura Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aura Minerals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aura Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aura Minerals Predictive Forecast Models
Aura Minerals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Aura Minerals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aura Minerals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aura Minerals
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aura Minerals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aura Minerals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 53.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Closing Bell Aura Minerals Inc down on Monday - The Globe and Mail |
Check out Aura Minerals Backtesting, Aura Minerals Valuation, Aura Minerals Correlation, Aura Minerals Hype Analysis, Aura Minerals Volatility, Aura Minerals History as well as Aura Minerals Performance. Note that the Aura Minerals information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aura Minerals' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Aura Stock analysis
When running Aura Minerals' price analysis, check to measure Aura Minerals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aura Minerals is operating at the current time. Most of Aura Minerals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aura Minerals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aura Minerals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aura Minerals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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