Bazan Oil (Israel) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 143.37
| ORL Stock | ILS 108.00 0.90 0.83% |
Bazan |
Bazan Oil Target Price Odds to finish below 143.37
The tendency of Bazan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under S 143.37 after 90 days |
| 108.00 | 90 days | 143.37 | over 95.12 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bazan Oil to stay under S 143.37 after 90 days from now is over 95.12 (This Bazan Oil Refineries probability density function shows the probability of Bazan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bazan Oil Refineries price to stay between its current price of S 108.00 and S 143.37 at the end of the 90-day period is about 89.7 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Bazan Oil Refineries has a beta of -0.4. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Bazan Oil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Bazan Oil Refineries is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Bazan Oil Refineries has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Bazan Oil Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Bazan Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bazan Oil Refineries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bazan Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Bazan Oil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bazan Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bazan Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bazan Oil Refineries, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bazan Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.4 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.84 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Bazan Oil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bazan Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bazan Oil Refineries can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Bazan Oil Refineries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Bazan Oil Refineries has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Bazan Oil Refineries has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 39.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Bazan Oil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bazan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bazan Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bazan Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.2 B |
Bazan Oil Technical Analysis
Bazan Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bazan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bazan Oil Refineries. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bazan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bazan Oil Predictive Forecast Models
Bazan Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Bazan Oil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bazan Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Bazan Oil Refineries
Checking the ongoing alerts about Bazan Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bazan Oil Refineries help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Bazan Oil Refineries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Bazan Oil Refineries has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Bazan Oil Refineries has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 39.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Check out Bazan Oil Backtesting, Bazan Oil Valuation, Bazan Oil Correlation, Bazan Oil Hype Analysis, Bazan Oil Volatility, Bazan Oil History as well as Bazan Oil Performance. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Complementary Tools for Bazan Stock analysis
When running Bazan Oil's price analysis, check to measure Bazan Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bazan Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Bazan Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bazan Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bazan Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bazan Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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