Progressive Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 79.98

PGR -- USA Stock  

USD 77.49  0.42  0.54%

Progressive probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Progressive Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Progressive time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Progressive odds to be computed. Additionally take a look at Progressive Backtesting, Progressive Valuation, Progressive Correlation, Progressive Hype Analysis, Progressive Volatility, Progressive History as well as Progressive Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Progressive Target Price Odds to finish over 79.98

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 79.98  or more in 30 days
 77.49 30 days 79.98 
ABOUT 65.27%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Progressive to move over $ 79.98  or more in 30 days from now is about 65.27% (This Progressive Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Progressive Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Progressive price to stay between its current price of $ 77.49  and $ 79.98  at the end of the 30-day period is about 28.75%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.0983 . This implies Progressive Corporation market returns are sensible to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Progressive is expected to follow. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Progressive is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Progressive Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.07
β
Beta against DOW=1.10
σ
Overall volatility
=2.14
Ir
Information ratio =0.05

Progressive Alerts and Suggestions

Progressive generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
The company has 4.61B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 34.0 . This implies that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Progressive has Current Ratio of 0.36 suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due.
Over 82.0% of Progressive shares are owned by institutional investors
On July 3, 2019 Progressive paid $ 0.1 per share dividend to its current shareholders

ProgressivePrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out0.90%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.71
Short Percent Of Float0.91%
Float Shares580.48M
Shares Short Prior Month4.47M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.06M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.71M
Date Short InterestJuly 31, 2019
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3.50%
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