Virtus Kar Small Cap Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 37.97
| PSGCX Fund | USD 23.48 0.17 0.72% |
Virtus |
Virtus Kar Target Price Odds to finish over 37.97
The tendency of Virtus Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 37.97 or more in 90 days |
| 23.48 | 90 days | 37.97 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Virtus Kar to move over $ 37.97 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Virtus Kar Small Cap probability density function shows the probability of Virtus Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Virtus Kar Small price to stay between its current price of $ 23.48 and $ 37.97 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.33 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Virtus Kar will likely underperform. Additionally Virtus Kar Small Cap has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Virtus Kar Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Virtus Kar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virtus Kar Small. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Virtus Kar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Virtus Kar Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Virtus Kar is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Virtus Kar's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Virtus Kar Small Cap, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Virtus Kar within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Virtus Kar Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Virtus Kar for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Virtus Kar Small can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Virtus Kar Small generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -6.0% | |
| Virtus Kar Small maintains 98.17% of its assets in stocks |
Virtus Kar Technical Analysis
Virtus Kar's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Virtus Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Virtus Kar Small Cap. In general, you should focus on analyzing Virtus Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Virtus Kar Predictive Forecast Models
Virtus Kar's time-series forecasting models is one of many Virtus Kar's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Virtus Kar's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Virtus Kar Small
Checking the ongoing alerts about Virtus Kar for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Virtus Kar Small help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Virtus Kar Small generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -6.0% | |
| Virtus Kar Small maintains 98.17% of its assets in stocks |
Check out Virtus Kar Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Virtus Kar Correlation, Virtus Kar Hype Analysis, Virtus Kar Volatility, Virtus Kar History as well as Virtus Kar Performance. Note that the Virtus Kar Small information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Virtus Kar's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.