Papa Johns International Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 70.70875

PZZA Stock  USD 66.26  0.85  1.30%   
Papa Johns' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Papa Johns International. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Papa Johns based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Papa Johns International over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $67.5 is a CALL option contract on Papa Johns' common stock with a strick price of 67.5 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:14:43 for $1.5 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.4, and an ask price of $1.55. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 30.86. View All Papa options

Closest to current price Papa long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Papa Johns' future price is the expected price of Papa Johns instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Papa Johns International performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Papa Johns Backtesting, Papa Johns Valuation, Papa Johns Correlation, Papa Johns Hype Analysis, Papa Johns Volatility, Papa Johns History as well as Papa Johns Performance.
  
At present, Papa Johns' Price Earnings Ratio is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price To Sales Ratio is expected to grow to 1.43, whereas Price Book Value Ratio is projected to grow to (4.68). Please specify Papa Johns' target price for which you would like Papa Johns odds to be computed.

Papa Johns Target Price Odds to finish over 70.70875

The tendency of Papa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 70.71  or more in 90 days
 66.26 90 days 70.71 
about 72.82
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Papa Johns to move over $ 70.71  or more in 90 days from now is about 72.82 (This Papa Johns International probability density function shows the probability of Papa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Papa Johns International price to stay between its current price of $ 66.26  and $ 70.71  at the end of the 90-day period is about 25.87 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.21 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Papa Johns will likely underperform. Additionally Papa Johns International has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Papa Johns Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Papa Johns

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Papa Johns International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Papa Johns' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
64.6666.6468.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
59.6370.3472.32
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
59.6661.6463.62
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
84.0092.31102.46
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Papa Johns. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Papa Johns' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Papa Johns' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Papa Johns International.

Papa Johns Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Papa Johns is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Papa Johns' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Papa Johns International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Papa Johns within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.29
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.21
σ
Overall volatility
2.75
Ir
Information ratio -0.13

Papa Johns Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Papa Johns for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Papa Johns International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Papa Johns generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company currently holds 965.72 M in liabilities. Papa Johns International has a current ratio of 0.89, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Papa Johns until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Papa Johns' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Papa Johns International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Papa to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Papa Johns' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 23rd of February 2024 Papa Johns paid $ 0.46 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Papa Johns Launches Crispy Cuppy Roni Platform Featuring Premium Cupping Pepperoni Across Menu Favorites

Papa Johns Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Papa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Papa Johns' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Papa Johns' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding33.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments40.6 M

Papa Johns Technical Analysis

Papa Johns' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Papa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Papa Johns International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Papa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Papa Johns Predictive Forecast Models

Papa Johns' time-series forecasting models is one of many Papa Johns' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Papa Johns' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Papa Johns International

Checking the ongoing alerts about Papa Johns for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Papa Johns International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Papa Johns generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company currently holds 965.72 M in liabilities. Papa Johns International has a current ratio of 0.89, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Papa Johns until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Papa Johns' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Papa Johns International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Papa to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Papa Johns' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 23rd of February 2024 Papa Johns paid $ 0.46 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Papa Johns Launches Crispy Cuppy Roni Platform Featuring Premium Cupping Pepperoni Across Menu Favorites
When determining whether Papa Johns International offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Papa Johns' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Papa Johns International Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Papa Johns International Stock:
Check out Papa Johns Backtesting, Papa Johns Valuation, Papa Johns Correlation, Papa Johns Hype Analysis, Papa Johns Volatility, Papa Johns History as well as Papa Johns Performance.
Note that the Papa Johns International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Papa Johns' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

Complementary Tools for Papa Stock analysis

When running Papa Johns' price analysis, check to measure Papa Johns' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Papa Johns is operating at the current time. Most of Papa Johns' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Papa Johns' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Papa Johns' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Papa Johns to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Papa Johns' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Papa Johns. If investors know Papa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Papa Johns listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.205
Dividend Share
1.76
Earnings Share
2.48
Revenue Per Share
64.854
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.086
The market value of Papa Johns International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Papa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Papa Johns' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Papa Johns' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Papa Johns' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Papa Johns' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Papa Johns' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Papa Johns is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Papa Johns' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.