Saratoga Investment Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 24.47
| SAR Stock | USD 23.00 0.05 0.22% |
Closest to current price Saratoga long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Saratoga |
Saratoga Investment Target Price Odds to finish below 24.47
The tendency of Saratoga Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 24.47 after 90 days |
| 23.00 | 90 days | 24.47 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Saratoga Investment to stay under $ 24.47 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Saratoga Investment Corp probability density function shows the probability of Saratoga Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Saratoga Investment Corp price to stay between its current price of $ 23.00 and $ 24.47 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.19 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Saratoga Investment has a beta of 0.65. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Saratoga Investment average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Saratoga Investment Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Saratoga Investment Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Saratoga Investment Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Saratoga Investment
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Saratoga Investment Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Saratoga Investment's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Saratoga Investment Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Saratoga Investment is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Saratoga Investment's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Saratoga Investment Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Saratoga Investment within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.65 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Saratoga Investment Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Saratoga Investment for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Saratoga Investment Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company has 711.13 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.84, which is OK given its current industry classification. Saratoga Investment Corp has a current ratio of 0.45, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Saratoga Investment until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Saratoga Investment's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Saratoga Investment Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Saratoga to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Saratoga Investment's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Saratoga Investment Corp has about 96.08 M in cash with (130.37 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.26. | |
| Saratoga Investment has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 16.0% of Saratoga Investment outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| On 28th of March 2024 Saratoga Investment paid $ 0.73 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: BancTrust Co. Investment Bank Announces New Hire of the Chief Strategy Officer |
Saratoga Investment Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Saratoga Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Saratoga Investment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Saratoga Investment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 65.7 B |
Saratoga Investment Technical Analysis
Saratoga Investment's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Saratoga Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Saratoga Investment Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Saratoga Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Saratoga Investment Predictive Forecast Models
Saratoga Investment's time-series forecasting models is one of many Saratoga Investment's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Saratoga Investment's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Saratoga Investment Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Saratoga Investment for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Saratoga Investment Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company has 711.13 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.84, which is OK given its current industry classification. Saratoga Investment Corp has a current ratio of 0.45, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Saratoga Investment until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Saratoga Investment's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Saratoga Investment Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Saratoga to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Saratoga Investment's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Saratoga Investment Corp has about 96.08 M in cash with (130.37 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.26. | |
| Saratoga Investment has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 16.0% of Saratoga Investment outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| On 28th of March 2024 Saratoga Investment paid $ 0.73 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: BancTrust Co. Investment Bank Announces New Hire of the Chief Strategy Officer |
Check out Saratoga Investment Backtesting, Saratoga Investment Valuation, Saratoga Investment Correlation, Saratoga Investment Hype Analysis, Saratoga Investment Volatility, Saratoga Investment History as well as Saratoga Investment Performance. Note that the Saratoga Investment Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Saratoga Investment's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Complementary Tools for Saratoga Stock analysis
When running Saratoga Investment's price analysis, check to measure Saratoga Investment's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Saratoga Investment is operating at the current time. Most of Saratoga Investment's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Saratoga Investment's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Saratoga Investment's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Saratoga Investment to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Saratoga Investment's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Saratoga Investment. If investors know Saratoga will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Saratoga Investment listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7.192 | Dividend Share 2.82 | Earnings Share 1.89 | Revenue Per Share 11.342 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.384 |
The market value of Saratoga Investment Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Saratoga that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Saratoga Investment's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Saratoga Investment's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Saratoga Investment's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Saratoga Investment's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Saratoga Investment's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Saratoga Investment is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Saratoga Investment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.