Siga Technologies Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.05
| SIGA Stock | USD 8.35 0.01 0.12% |
Closest to current price SIGA long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
SIGA |
SIGA Technologies Target Price Odds to finish below 7.05
The tendency of SIGA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 7.05 or more in 90 days |
| 8.35 | 90 days | 7.05 | about 65.39 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of SIGA Technologies to drop to $ 7.05 or more in 90 days from now is about 65.39 (This SIGA Technologies probability density function shows the probability of SIGA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of SIGA Technologies price to stay between $ 7.05 and its current price of $8.35 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.8 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, SIGA Technologies will likely underperform. Additionally SIGA Technologies has an alpha of 0.7547, implying that it can generate a 0.75 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). SIGA Technologies Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for SIGA Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SIGA Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SIGA Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
SIGA Technologies Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. SIGA Technologies is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the SIGA Technologies' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold SIGA Technologies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of SIGA Technologies within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.75 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.80 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.96 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.19 |
SIGA Technologies Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of SIGA Technologies for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for SIGA Technologies can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| SIGA Technologies appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| SIGA Technologies is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| SIGA Technologies has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| On 11th of April 2024 SIGA Technologies paid $ 0.6 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Siga Technologies Inc. Increases Despite Market Slip Heres What You Need to Know |
SIGA Technologies Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of SIGA Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential SIGA Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. SIGA Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 71.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 150.1 M |
SIGA Technologies Technical Analysis
SIGA Technologies' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. SIGA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of SIGA Technologies. In general, you should focus on analyzing SIGA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
SIGA Technologies Predictive Forecast Models
SIGA Technologies' time-series forecasting models is one of many SIGA Technologies' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary SIGA Technologies' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about SIGA Technologies
Checking the ongoing alerts about SIGA Technologies for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for SIGA Technologies help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| SIGA Technologies appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| SIGA Technologies is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| SIGA Technologies has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| On 11th of April 2024 SIGA Technologies paid $ 0.6 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Siga Technologies Inc. Increases Despite Market Slip Heres What You Need to Know |
Check out SIGA Technologies Backtesting, SIGA Technologies Valuation, SIGA Technologies Correlation, SIGA Technologies Hype Analysis, SIGA Technologies Volatility, SIGA Technologies History as well as SIGA Technologies Performance. For information on how to trade SIGA Stock refer to our How to Trade SIGA Stock guide.Note that the SIGA Technologies information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other SIGA Technologies' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Complementary Tools for SIGA Stock analysis
When running SIGA Technologies' price analysis, check to measure SIGA Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy SIGA Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of SIGA Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of SIGA Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move SIGA Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of SIGA Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is SIGA Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SIGA Technologies. If investors know SIGA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about SIGA Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.721 | Earnings Share 0.95 | Revenue Per Share 1.961 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 9.255 | Return On Assets 0.2326 |
The market value of SIGA Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SIGA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SIGA Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SIGA Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SIGA Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SIGA Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SIGA Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SIGA Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SIGA Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.