Sm Energy Co Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 16.3472

SM Stock  USD 49.05  0.37  0.76%   
SM Energy's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on SM Energy Co. Implied volatility approximates the future value of SM Energy based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in SM Energy Co over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $50.0 is a CALL option contract on SM Energy's common stock with a strick price of 50.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 13:24:01 for $0.85 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.85, and an ask price of $0.9. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 25.24. View All SM Energy options

Closest to current price SM Energy long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

SM Energy's future price is the expected price of SM Energy instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of SM Energy Co performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out SM Energy Backtesting, SM Energy Valuation, SM Energy Correlation, SM Energy Hype Analysis, SM Energy Volatility, SM Energy History as well as SM Energy Performance.
  
At this time, SM Energy's Price Fair Value is very stable compared to the past year. Please specify SM Energy's target price for which you would like SM Energy odds to be computed.

SM Energy Target Price Odds to finish over 16.3472

The tendency of SM Energy Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 16.35  in 90 days
 49.05 90 days 16.35 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of SM Energy to stay above $ 16.35  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This SM Energy Co probability density function shows the probability of SM Energy Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of SM Energy price to stay between $ 16.35  and its current price of $49.05 at the end of the 90-day period is about 97.0 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.5 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, SM Energy will likely underperform. Additionally SM Energy Co has an alpha of 0.1931, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   SM Energy Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for SM Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SM Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SM Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
47.3049.0450.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
49.0050.7452.48
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
47.5649.3051.04
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
45.2749.7555.22
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as SM Energy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against SM Energy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, SM Energy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in SM Energy.

SM Energy Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. SM Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the SM Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold SM Energy Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of SM Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.19
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.50
σ
Overall volatility
4.34
Ir
Information ratio 0.15

SM Energy Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of SM Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for SM Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
SM Energy is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reports 1.58 B of total liabilities with total debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.64, which is normal for its line of buisiness. SM Energy has a current ratio of 0.61, implying that it has not enough working capital to pay out debt commitments in time. Debt can assist SM Energy until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, SM Energy's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like SM Energy sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for SM Energy to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about SM Energy's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
SM Energy has a very strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 98.0% of SM Energy shares are owned by institutional investors
On 5th of February 2024 SM Energy paid $ 0.18 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: SM Energy declares 0.18 dividend

SM Energy Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of SM Energy Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential SM Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. SM Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding119.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments616.2 M

SM Energy Technical Analysis

SM Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. SM Energy Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of SM Energy Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing SM Energy Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

SM Energy Predictive Forecast Models

SM Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many SM Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary SM Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about SM Energy

Checking the ongoing alerts about SM Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for SM Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
SM Energy is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reports 1.58 B of total liabilities with total debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.64, which is normal for its line of buisiness. SM Energy has a current ratio of 0.61, implying that it has not enough working capital to pay out debt commitments in time. Debt can assist SM Energy until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, SM Energy's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like SM Energy sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for SM Energy to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about SM Energy's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
SM Energy has a very strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 98.0% of SM Energy shares are owned by institutional investors
On 5th of February 2024 SM Energy paid $ 0.18 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: SM Energy declares 0.18 dividend
When determining whether SM Energy is a strong investment it is important to analyze SM Energy's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact SM Energy's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding SM Energy Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for SM Energy Stock analysis

When running SM Energy's price analysis, check to measure SM Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy SM Energy is operating at the current time. Most of SM Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of SM Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move SM Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of SM Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is SM Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SM Energy. If investors know SM Energy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about SM Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.013
Dividend Share
0.63
Earnings Share
6.86
Revenue Per Share
19.117
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.09)
The market value of SM Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SM Energy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SM Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SM Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SM Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SM Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SM Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SM Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SM Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.