Deutsche Managed Municipal Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 9.23
| SMLCX Fund | USD 8.03 0.02 0.25% |
Deutsche |
Deutsche Managed Target Price Odds to finish below 9.23
The tendency of Deutsche Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 9.23 after 90 days |
| 8.03 | 90 days | 9.23 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Deutsche Managed to stay under $ 9.23 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Deutsche Managed Municipal probability density function shows the probability of Deutsche Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Deutsche Managed Mun price to stay between its current price of $ 8.03 and $ 9.23 at the end of the 90-day period is about 91.51 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Deutsche Managed Municipal has a beta of -0.0212. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Deutsche Managed are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Deutsche Managed Municipal is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Deutsche Managed Municipal has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Deutsche Managed Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Deutsche Managed
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Deutsche Managed Mun. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Deutsche Managed's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Deutsche Managed Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Deutsche Managed is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Deutsche Managed's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Deutsche Managed Municipal, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Deutsche Managed within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.45 |
Deutsche Managed Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Deutsche Managed for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Deutsche Managed Mun can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund generated three year return of -2.0% | |
| Deutsche Managed Mun maintains most of the assets in different exotic instruments. |
Deutsche Managed Technical Analysis
Deutsche Managed's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Deutsche Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Deutsche Managed Municipal. In general, you should focus on analyzing Deutsche Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Deutsche Managed Predictive Forecast Models
Deutsche Managed's time-series forecasting models is one of many Deutsche Managed's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Deutsche Managed's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Deutsche Managed Mun
Checking the ongoing alerts about Deutsche Managed for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Deutsche Managed Mun help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund generated three year return of -2.0% | |
| Deutsche Managed Mun maintains most of the assets in different exotic instruments. |
Check out Deutsche Managed Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Deutsche Managed Correlation, Deutsche Managed Hype Analysis, Deutsche Managed Volatility, Deutsche Managed History as well as Deutsche Managed Performance. Note that the Deutsche Managed Mun information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Deutsche Managed's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.