Sparinvest USA (Denmark) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 84.52
| SPIUSVKL | DKK 92.28 0.36 0.39% |
Sparinvest |
Sparinvest USA Target Price Odds to finish below 84.52
The tendency of Sparinvest Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to kr 84.52 or more in 90 days |
| 92.28 | 90 days | 84.52 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Sparinvest USA to drop to kr 84.52 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Sparinvest USA Value probability density function shows the probability of Sparinvest Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Sparinvest USA Value price to stay between kr 84.52 and its current price of kr92.28 at the end of the 90-day period is about 72.72 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Sparinvest USA Value has a beta of -0.19. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Sparinvest USA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Sparinvest USA Value is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Sparinvest USA Value has an alpha of 0.0383, implying that it can generate a 0.0383 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Sparinvest USA Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Sparinvest USA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sparinvest USA Value. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sparinvest USA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Sparinvest USA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Sparinvest USA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Sparinvest USA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Sparinvest USA Value, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Sparinvest USA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.62 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Sparinvest USA Technical Analysis
Sparinvest USA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Sparinvest Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Sparinvest USA Value. In general, you should focus on analyzing Sparinvest Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Sparinvest USA Predictive Forecast Models
Sparinvest USA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Sparinvest USA's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Sparinvest USA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Sparinvest USA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Sparinvest USA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Sparinvest USA options trading.
Check out Sparinvest USA Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Sparinvest USA Correlation, Sparinvest USA Hype Analysis, Sparinvest USA Volatility, Sparinvest USA History as well as Sparinvest USA Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sparinvest USA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sparinvest USA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sparinvest USA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.