St Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 39.82

STBA Stock  USD 32.08  0.32  1.01%   
ST Bancorp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on ST Bancorp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of ST Bancorp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in ST Bancorp over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $30.0 is a CALL option contract on ST Bancorp's common stock with a strick price of 30.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2023-12-14 at 11:03:06 for $4.5 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.5, and an ask price of $6.2. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 32.42. View All STBA options

Closest to current price STBA long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

ST Bancorp's future price is the expected price of ST Bancorp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of ST Bancorp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out ST Bancorp Backtesting, ST Bancorp Valuation, ST Bancorp Correlation, ST Bancorp Hype Analysis, ST Bancorp Volatility, ST Bancorp History as well as ST Bancorp Performance.
For information on how to trade STBA Stock refer to our How to Trade STBA Stock guide.
  
At present, ST Bancorp's Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is expected to grow to 13.48, whereas Price Earnings Ratio is forecasted to decline to 8.43. Please specify ST Bancorp's target price for which you would like ST Bancorp odds to be computed.

ST Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish below 39.82

The tendency of STBA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 39.82  after 90 days
 32.08 90 days 39.82 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ST Bancorp to stay under $ 39.82  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This ST Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of STBA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ST Bancorp price to stay between its current price of $ 32.08  and $ 39.82  at the end of the 90-day period is about 47.69 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.0 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, ST Bancorp will likely underperform. Additionally ST Bancorp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   ST Bancorp Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for ST Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ST Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ST Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
29.6931.8233.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.6630.7932.92
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
26.6229.2532.47
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.750.790.81
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ST Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ST Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ST Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ST Bancorp.

ST Bancorp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ST Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ST Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ST Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ST Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.26
β
Beta against NYSE Composite2.00
σ
Overall volatility
1.21
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

ST Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ST Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ST Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
ST Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
ST Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 66.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 22nd of February 2024 ST Bancorp paid $ 0.33 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: ST Bancorp, Inc. Shares Sold by Citigroup Inc. - Defense World

ST Bancorp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of STBA Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ST Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ST Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding38.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments-233.6 M

ST Bancorp Technical Analysis

ST Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. STBA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ST Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing STBA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

ST Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models

ST Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many ST Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ST Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about ST Bancorp

Checking the ongoing alerts about ST Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ST Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
ST Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
ST Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 66.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 22nd of February 2024 ST Bancorp paid $ 0.33 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: ST Bancorp, Inc. Shares Sold by Citigroup Inc. - Defense World
When determining whether ST Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of ST Bancorp's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of St Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on St Bancorp Stock:
Check out ST Bancorp Backtesting, ST Bancorp Valuation, ST Bancorp Correlation, ST Bancorp Hype Analysis, ST Bancorp Volatility, ST Bancorp History as well as ST Bancorp Performance.
For information on how to trade STBA Stock refer to our How to Trade STBA Stock guide.
Note that the ST Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other ST Bancorp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.

Complementary Tools for STBA Stock analysis

When running ST Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure ST Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ST Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of ST Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ST Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ST Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ST Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ST Bancorp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ST Bancorp. If investors know STBA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ST Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.06)
Dividend Share
1.3
Earnings Share
3.74
Revenue Per Share
10.125
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.007
The market value of ST Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of STBA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ST Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ST Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ST Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ST Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ST Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ST Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ST Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.