Tricida Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 31.98

TCDA -- USA Stock  

USD 35.96  0.56  1.58%

Tricida probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Tricida performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Tricida time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Tricida odds to be computed. Also please take a look at Tricida Backtesting, Tricida Valuation, Tricida Correlation, Tricida Hype Analysis, Tricida Volatility, Tricida History as well as Tricida Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Tricida Target Price Odds to finish below 31.98

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 31.98  or more in 30 days
 35.96 30 days 31.98 
about 65.9
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Tricida to drop to $ 31.98  or more in 30 days from now is about 65.9 (This Tricida probability density function shows the probability of Tricida Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Tricida price to stay between $ 31.98  and its current price of $35.96 at the end of the 30-day period is about 9.83 .
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Tricida has beta of -0.1614 . This entails as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Tricida are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Tricida is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Tricida is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Tricida Price Density 
Alpha over DOW
Beta against DOW=0.16
Overall volatility
Information ratio =0.009903

Tricida Alerts and Suggestions

Net Loss for the year was (131.47 M).
The company currently holds about 393.83 M in cash with (117.71 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 7.97.
Over 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Exercise or conversion by Wilhelm Stahl of 2000 shares of Tricida subject to Rule 16b-3

TricidaPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out7.23%
Short Percent Of Float23.05%
Float Shares26.58M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day230.44k
Shares Short Prior Month3.63M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month194.72k
Date Short InterestSeptember 30, 2019