Tencent Holdings Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 46.13

TCTZF Stock  USD 38.76  1.16  3.09%   
Tencent Holdings' future price is the expected price of Tencent Holdings instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Tencent Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Tencent Holdings Backtesting, Tencent Holdings Valuation, Tencent Holdings Correlation, Tencent Holdings Hype Analysis, Tencent Holdings Volatility, Tencent Holdings History as well as Tencent Holdings Performance.
  
Please specify Tencent Holdings' target price for which you would like Tencent Holdings odds to be computed.

Tencent Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 46.13

The tendency of Tencent Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 46.13  after 90 days
 38.76 90 days 46.13 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Tencent Holdings to stay under $ 46.13  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Tencent Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Tencent Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Tencent Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 38.76  and $ 46.13  at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.92 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Tencent Holdings has a beta of 0.27. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Tencent Holdings average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Tencent Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Tencent Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Tencent Holdings Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Tencent Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tencent Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tencent Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
36.5938.7640.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
29.4031.5742.64
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
37.5239.6941.87
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
33.5636.1338.71
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Tencent Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Tencent Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Tencent Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Tencent Holdings.

Tencent Holdings Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Tencent Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Tencent Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Tencent Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Tencent Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.04
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.27
σ
Overall volatility
1.15
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

Tencent Holdings Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Tencent Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Tencent Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 36.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Tencent Holdings Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Tencent Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Tencent Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tencent Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding9.6 B

Tencent Holdings Technical Analysis

Tencent Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Tencent Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Tencent Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Tencent Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Tencent Holdings Predictive Forecast Models

Tencent Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Tencent Holdings' pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Tencent Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Tencent Holdings

Checking the ongoing alerts about Tencent Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Tencent Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 36.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Check out Tencent Holdings Backtesting, Tencent Holdings Valuation, Tencent Holdings Correlation, Tencent Holdings Hype Analysis, Tencent Holdings Volatility, Tencent Holdings History as well as Tencent Holdings Performance.
Note that the Tencent Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Tencent Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.

Complementary Tools for Tencent Pink Sheet analysis

When running Tencent Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Tencent Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tencent Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Tencent Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tencent Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tencent Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tencent Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Tencent Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Tencent Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tencent Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.