Catalystsmh Total Return Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 4.35
| TRIIX Fund | USD 4.68 0.03 0.65% |
Catalyst/smh |
Catalyst/smh Total Target Price Odds to finish below 4.35
The tendency of Catalyst/smh Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 4.35 or more in 90 days |
| 4.68 | 90 days | 4.35 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Catalyst/smh Total to drop to $ 4.35 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Catalystsmh Total Return probability density function shows the probability of Catalyst/smh Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Catalystsmh Total Return price to stay between $ 4.35 and its current price of $4.68 at the end of the 90-day period is about 81.92 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Catalyst/smh Total has a beta of 0.49. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Catalyst/smh Total average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Catalystsmh Total Return will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Catalystsmh Total Return has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Catalyst/smh Total Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Catalyst/smh Total
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Catalystsmh Total Return. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Catalyst/smh Total's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Catalyst/smh Total Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Catalyst/smh Total is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Catalyst/smh Total's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Catalystsmh Total Return, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Catalyst/smh Total within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.0085 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.49 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Catalyst/smh Total Technical Analysis
Catalyst/smh Total's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Catalyst/smh Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Catalystsmh Total Return. In general, you should focus on analyzing Catalyst/smh Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Catalyst/smh Total Predictive Forecast Models
Catalyst/smh Total's time-series forecasting models is one of many Catalyst/smh Total's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Catalyst/smh Total's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Catalyst/smh Total in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Catalyst/smh Total's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Catalyst/smh Total options trading.
Check out Catalyst/smh Total Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Catalyst/smh Total Correlation, Catalyst/smh Total Hype Analysis, Catalyst/smh Total Volatility, Catalyst/smh Total History as well as Catalyst/smh Total Performance. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.