Retirement Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 11.05

RE
TRPJX -- USA Fund  

USD 13.04  0.05  0.38%

Retirement probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Retirement I 2035 performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

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Please specify Retirement time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Retirement odds to be computed. Additionally, take a look at Retirement Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Retirement Correlation, Retirement Hype Analysis, Retirement Volatility, Retirement History as well as Retirement Performance.
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Retirement Target Price Odds to finish below 11.05

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 11.05  or more in 30 days
 13.04 30 days 11.05 
about 12.22
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Retirement to drop to $ 11.05  or more in 30 days from now is about 12.22 (This Retirement I 2035 probability density function shows the probability of Retirement Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Retirement I 2035 price to stay between $ 11.05  and its current price of $13.04 at the end of the 30-day period is about 78.79 .
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Retirement has beta of 0.4436 . This entails as returns on market go up, Retirement average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Retirement I 2035 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0539 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0539% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Retirement Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.05
β
Beta against DOW=0.44
σ
Overall volatility
=0.79
Ir
Information ratio =0.010001

Retirement Alerts and Suggestions

Retirement I 2035 generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
The fund maintains about 15.5% of its assets in bonds

RetirementPrice Density Drivers

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