Twitter Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 25.0

TWTR -- USA Stock  

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Twitter probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Twitter performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Twitter time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Twitter odds to be computed. Also please take a look at Twitter Backtesting, Twitter Valuation, Twitter Correlation, Twitter Hype Analysis, Twitter Volatility, Twitter History as well as Twitter Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Twitter Target Price Odds to finish over 25.0

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 25.00  in 30 days
 30.37 30 days 25.00 
roughly 96.0
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Twitter to stay above $ 25.00  in 30 days from now is roughly 96.0 (This Twitter probability density function shows the probability of Twitter Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Twitter price to stay between $ 25.00  and its current price of $30.37 at the end of the 30-day period is about 15.82 .
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.21 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average . However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Twitter will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Twitter is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Twitter Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.55
β
Beta against DOW=1.21
σ
Overall volatility
=5.79
Ir
Information ratio =0.19

Twitter Alerts and Suggestions

Twitter generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Should Twitter, Inc.s Weak Investment Returns Worry You - Yahoo Finance

TwitterPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out4.03%
Short Percent Of Float4.16%
Float Shares745.75M
Shares Short Prior Month24.86M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day12.29M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month14.85M
Date Short InterestNovember 15, 2019
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