Twitter Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 32.82

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TWTR -- USA Stock  

Earning Report: February 6, 2020  

Twitter probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Twitter performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Twitter time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Twitter odds to be computed. Additionally take a look at Twitter Backtesting, Twitter Valuation, Twitter Correlation, Twitter Hype Analysis, Twitter Volatility, Twitter History as well as Twitter Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Twitter Target Price Odds to finish below 32.82

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 32.82  or more in 30 days
 34.13 30 days 32.82 
about 65.16
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Twitter to drop to $ 32.82  or more in 30 days from now is about 65.16 (This Twitter probability density function shows the probability of Twitter Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Twitter price to stay between $ 32.82  and its current price of $34.13 at the end of the 30-day period is about 15.15 .
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.31 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average . However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Twitter will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Twitter is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Twitter Price Density 
    
  Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.35
β
Beta against DOW=1.31
σ
Overall volatility
=2.82
Ir
Information ratio =0.11

Twitter Alerts and Suggestions

Twitter generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.wsj.com: FANGs Strong Run Gives Risky Exchange-Traded Product Top Marks - Wall Street Journal

TwitterPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out4.04%
Short Percent Of Float4.18%
Float Shares746.66M
Shares Short Prior Month31.83M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day11.88M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month16.28M
Date Short InterestDecember 31, 2019