UGARSUGAR Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 10.3

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UGARSUGAR -- India Stock  

INR 14.00  0.10  0.71%

UGAR SUGAR probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of UGAR SUGAR WORKS performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

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Please specify UGAR SUGAR time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like UGAR SUGAR odds to be computed. Also please take a look at UGAR SUGAR Backtesting, UGAR SUGAR Valuation, UGAR SUGAR Correlation, UGAR SUGAR Hype Analysis, UGAR SUGAR Volatility, UGAR SUGAR History as well as UGAR SUGAR Performance.
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UGAR SUGAR Target Price Odds to finish over 10.3

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above  10.30  in 30 days
 14.00 30 days 10.30 
about 92.05
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UGAR SUGAR to stay above  10.30  in 30 days from now is about 92.05 (This UGAR SUGAR WORKS probability density function shows the probability of UGAR SUGAR Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of UGAR SUGAR WORKS price to stay between  10.30  and its current price of 14.0 at the end of the 30-day period is about 72.21 .
Assuming the 30 trading days horizon, UGAR SUGAR WORKS has a beta of -0.2124. This usually implies as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding UGAR SUGAR are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, UGAR SUGAR WORKS is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.6105, implying that it can potentially generate 0.61% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 UGAR SUGAR Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.61
β
Beta against DOW=-0.21
σ
Overall volatility
=1.64
Ir
Information ratio =0.07

UGAR SUGAR Alerts and Suggestions

UGAR SUGAR WORKS appears to be very risky and stock price may revert if volatility continues
The company has accumulated 4.15 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 6.39, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. UGAR SUGAR WORKS has a current ratio of 0.95, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due.
About 41.0% of UGAR SUGAR outstanding shares are owned by insiders

UGAR SUGARPrice Density Drivers

Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.20
Float Shares64.66M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day296.81k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month201.66k
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.33%
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