Umb Financial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 63.05
| UMBF Stock | USD 80.20 0.53 0.67% |
Closest to current price UMB long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
UMB |
UMB Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 63.05
The tendency of UMB Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 63.05 in 90 days |
| 80.20 | 90 days | 63.05 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UMB Financial to stay above $ 63.05 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This UMB Financial probability density function shows the probability of UMB Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UMB Financial price to stay between $ 63.05 and its current price of $80.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 29.43 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.47 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, UMB Financial will likely underperform. Additionally UMB Financial has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. UMB Financial Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for UMB Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UMB Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UMB Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
UMB Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UMB Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UMB Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UMB Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UMB Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.47 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0053 |
UMB Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of UMB Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for UMB Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| UMB Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| UMB Financial has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 89.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 1st of April 2024 UMB Financial paid $ 0.39 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Strs Ohio Purchases 79,200 Shares of UMB Financial Co. - MarketBeat |
UMB Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of UMB Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential UMB Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UMB Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 447.2 M |
UMB Financial Technical Analysis
UMB Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UMB Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UMB Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing UMB Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
UMB Financial Predictive Forecast Models
UMB Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many UMB Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UMB Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about UMB Financial
Checking the ongoing alerts about UMB Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for UMB Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| UMB Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| UMB Financial has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 89.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 1st of April 2024 UMB Financial paid $ 0.39 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Strs Ohio Purchases 79,200 Shares of UMB Financial Co. - MarketBeat |
Check out UMB Financial Backtesting, UMB Financial Valuation, UMB Financial Correlation, UMB Financial Hype Analysis, UMB Financial Volatility, UMB Financial History as well as UMB Financial Performance. For more detail on how to invest in UMB Stock please use our How to Invest in UMB Financial guide.Note that the UMB Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other UMB Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Complementary Tools for UMB Stock analysis
When running UMB Financial's price analysis, check to measure UMB Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UMB Financial is operating at the current time. Most of UMB Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UMB Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UMB Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UMB Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is UMB Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UMB Financial. If investors know UMB will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UMB Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.30) | Dividend Share 1.53 | Earnings Share 7.18 | Revenue Per Share 29.291 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.025 |
The market value of UMB Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UMB that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UMB Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UMB Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UMB Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UMB Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UMB Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UMB Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UMB Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.