Invesco Municipal Income Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 13.7

VMINX Fund  USD 12.02  0.01  0.08%   
Invesco Municipal's future price is the expected price of Invesco Municipal instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Invesco Municipal Income performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Invesco Municipal Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Invesco Municipal Correlation, Invesco Municipal Hype Analysis, Invesco Municipal Volatility, Invesco Municipal History as well as Invesco Municipal Performance.
  
Please specify Invesco Municipal's target price for which you would like Invesco Municipal odds to be computed.

Invesco Municipal Target Price Odds to finish below 13.7

The tendency of Invesco Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 13.70  after 90 days
 12.02 90 days 13.70 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Invesco Municipal to stay under $ 13.70  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Invesco Municipal Income probability density function shows the probability of Invesco Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Invesco Municipal Income price to stay between its current price of $ 12.02  and $ 13.70  at the end of the 90-day period is about 31.17 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Invesco Municipal has a beta of 0.0798. This entails as returns on the market go up, Invesco Municipal average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Invesco Municipal Income will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Invesco Municipal Income has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Invesco Municipal Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Invesco Municipal

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Invesco Municipal Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Invesco Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.8112.0212.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.8012.0112.22
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
11.7711.9812.20
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
11.9812.0412.11
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Invesco Municipal. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Invesco Municipal's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Invesco Municipal's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Invesco Municipal Income.

Invesco Municipal Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Invesco Municipal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Invesco Municipal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Invesco Municipal Income, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Invesco Municipal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.01
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.08
σ
Overall volatility
0.06
Ir
Information ratio -0.6

Invesco Municipal Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Invesco Municipal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Invesco Municipal Income can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund generated three year return of -1.0%
Invesco Municipal Income keeps about 6.37% of its net assets in cash

Invesco Municipal Technical Analysis

Invesco Municipal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Invesco Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Invesco Municipal Income. In general, you should focus on analyzing Invesco Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Invesco Municipal Predictive Forecast Models

Invesco Municipal's time-series forecasting models is one of many Invesco Municipal's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Invesco Municipal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Invesco Municipal Income

Checking the ongoing alerts about Invesco Municipal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Invesco Municipal Income help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund generated three year return of -1.0%
Invesco Municipal Income keeps about 6.37% of its net assets in cash
Check out Invesco Municipal Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Invesco Municipal Correlation, Invesco Municipal Hype Analysis, Invesco Municipal Volatility, Invesco Municipal History as well as Invesco Municipal Performance.
You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.

Complementary Tools for Invesco Mutual Fund analysis

When running Invesco Municipal's price analysis, check to measure Invesco Municipal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Invesco Municipal is operating at the current time. Most of Invesco Municipal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Invesco Municipal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Invesco Municipal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Invesco Municipal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Invesco Municipal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Invesco Municipal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Invesco Municipal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.