Vanguard New Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

VNJTX -- USA Fund  

USD 12.50  0.02  0.16%

Vanguard New probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Vanguard New Jersey Long Term T performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Vanguard New time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Vanguard New odds to be computed. Also please take a look at Vanguard New Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Vanguard New Correlation, Vanguard New Hype Analysis, Vanguard New Volatility, Vanguard New History as well as Vanguard New Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Vanguard New Target Price Odds to finish over

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
 12.50 30 days 12.50 
about 63.65
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard New to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 63.65 (This Vanguard New Jersey Long Term T probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard New Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Vanguard New Jersey Long Term T has beta of -0.0736 . This entails as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Vanguard New are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Vanguard New Jersey Long Term T is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0059 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0059% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Vanguard New Price Density 
Alpha over DOW
Beta against DOW=0.07
Overall volatility
Information ratio =0.21

Vanguard New Alerts and Suggestions

The fund keeps about 99.97% of its net assets in bonds

Vanguard NewPrice Density Drivers