Vanguard New Jersey Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 11.90
| VNJTX Fund | USD 11.23 0.02 0.18% |
Vanguard |
Vanguard New Target Price Odds to finish below 11.90
The tendency of Vanguard Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 11.90 after 90 days |
| 11.23 | 90 days | 11.90 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard New to stay under $ 11.90 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Vanguard New Jersey probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vanguard New Jersey price to stay between its current price of $ 11.23 and $ 11.90 at the end of the 90-day period is about 97.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Vanguard New Jersey has a beta of -0.01. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Vanguard New are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Vanguard New Jersey is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Vanguard New Jersey has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Vanguard New Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vanguard New
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard New Jersey. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard New's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard New Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vanguard New is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vanguard New's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vanguard New Jersey, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vanguard New within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.06 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.48 |
Vanguard New Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vanguard New for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vanguard New Jersey can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vanguard New Jersey generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| Vanguard New Jersey keeps most of the net assets in exotic instruments. |
Vanguard New Technical Analysis
Vanguard New's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vanguard Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vanguard New Jersey. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vanguard Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vanguard New Predictive Forecast Models
Vanguard New's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vanguard New's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vanguard New's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vanguard New Jersey
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vanguard New for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vanguard New Jersey help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vanguard New Jersey generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| Vanguard New Jersey keeps most of the net assets in exotic instruments. |
Check out Vanguard New Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Vanguard New Correlation, Vanguard New Hype Analysis, Vanguard New Volatility, Vanguard New History as well as Vanguard New Performance. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.