Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 14.49

VWITX Fund  USD 13.64  0.01  0.07%   
Vanguard Intermediate-ter's future price is the expected price of Vanguard Intermediate-ter instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Vanguard Intermediate-ter Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Vanguard Intermediate-ter Correlation, Vanguard Intermediate-ter Hype Analysis, Vanguard Intermediate-ter Volatility, Vanguard Intermediate-ter History as well as Vanguard Intermediate-ter Performance.
  
Please specify Vanguard Intermediate-ter's target price for which you would like Vanguard Intermediate-ter odds to be computed.

Vanguard Intermediate-ter Target Price Odds to finish over 14.49

The tendency of Vanguard Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 14.49  or more in 90 days
 13.64 90 days 14.49 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard Intermediate-ter to move over $ 14.49  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vanguard Intermediate-ter price to stay between its current price of $ 13.64  and $ 14.49  at the end of the 90-day period is about 58.87 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt has a beta of -0.0026. This entails as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Vanguard Intermediate-ter are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Vanguard Intermediate-ter Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Vanguard Intermediate-ter

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard Intermediate-ter. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Intermediate-ter's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.4913.6413.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.3513.5013.65
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
13.4813.6213.77
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
13.6313.6513.68
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vanguard Intermediate-ter. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vanguard Intermediate-ter's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vanguard Intermediate-ter's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Vanguard Intermediate-ter.

Vanguard Intermediate-ter Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vanguard Intermediate-ter is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vanguard Intermediate-ter's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vanguard Intermediate-ter within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.0074
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.0026
σ
Overall volatility
0.04
Ir
Information ratio -0.91

Vanguard Intermediate-ter Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vanguard Intermediate-ter for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vanguard Intermediate-ter can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Vanguard Intermediate-ter generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Latest headline from news.google.com: Is VWITX a Strong Bond Fund Right Now - Yahoo Movies UK
The fund generated three year return of 0.0%
Vanguard Intermediate-ter keeps most of the net assets in exotic instruments.

Vanguard Intermediate-ter Technical Analysis

Vanguard Intermediate-ter's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vanguard Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vanguard Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Vanguard Intermediate-ter Predictive Forecast Models

Vanguard Intermediate-ter's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vanguard Intermediate-ter's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vanguard Intermediate-ter's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Vanguard Intermediate-ter

Checking the ongoing alerts about Vanguard Intermediate-ter for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vanguard Intermediate-ter help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Vanguard Intermediate-ter generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Latest headline from news.google.com: Is VWITX a Strong Bond Fund Right Now - Yahoo Movies UK
The fund generated three year return of 0.0%
Vanguard Intermediate-ter keeps most of the net assets in exotic instruments.

Complementary Tools for Vanguard Mutual Fund analysis

When running Vanguard Intermediate-ter's price analysis, check to measure Vanguard Intermediate-ter's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vanguard Intermediate-ter is operating at the current time. Most of Vanguard Intermediate-ter's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vanguard Intermediate-ter's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vanguard Intermediate-ter's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vanguard Intermediate-ter to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Portfolio Rebalancing
Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets
ETF Categories
List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments
Price Transformation
Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets
Money Managers
Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world
Sectors
List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities
Commodity Directory
Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges
Portfolio Suggestion
Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vanguard Intermediate-ter's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vanguard Intermediate-ter is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vanguard Intermediate-ter's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.