Wayfair Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

W -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: December 31, 2019  

Wayfair probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Wayfair performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Wayfair time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Wayfair odds to be computed. See also Wayfair Backtesting, Wayfair Valuation, Wayfair Correlation, Wayfair Hype Analysis, Wayfair Volatility, Wayfair History as well as Wayfair Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Symbol:
Refresh Odds

Wayfair Target Price Odds to finish over

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
 83.37 30 days 83.37 
roughly 97.0
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Wayfair to move above current price in 30 days from now is roughly 97.0 (This Wayfair probability density function shows the probability of Wayfair Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 2.5178 . This means as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average . However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Wayfair will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Wayfair is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Wayfair Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.69
β
Beta against DOW=2.52
σ
Overall volatility
=14.00
Ir
Information ratio =0.13

Wayfair Alerts and Suggestions

Wayfair generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
Wayfair has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported annual revenue of 8.61 B. Total Loss to common stockholders was (798.21 M) with gross profit before all taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.59 B.
W has accumulated about 1.3 B in cash with (117.99 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 13.97.
Over 116.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from stocknewsworld.com: Stocks Could Be Back to the Races Wayfair Inc., - StockNewsWorld

WayfairPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out17.75%
Short Percent Of Float32.40%
Float Shares61.94M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.61M
Shares Short Prior Month15.21M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.31M
Date Short InterestOctober 31, 2019
Search macroaxis.com