Stone Harbor Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

XEDIX -- USA Fund  

USD 10.43  0.03  0.29%

Stone Harbor probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Stone Harbor Emerging Markets T performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Stone Harbor time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Stone Harbor odds to be computed. See also Stone Harbor Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Stone Harbor Correlation, Stone Harbor Hype Analysis, Stone Harbor Volatility, Stone Harbor History as well as Stone Harbor Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Stone Harbor Target Price Odds to finish over

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
 10.43 30 days 10.43 
about 70.46
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Stone Harbor to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 70.46 (This Stone Harbor Emerging Markets T probability density function shows the probability of Stone Harbor Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Stone Harbor has beta of 0.2139 . This means as returns on market go up, Stone Harbor average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Stone Harbor Emerging Markets T will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Stone Harbor Emerging is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Stone Harbor Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.12
β
Beta against DOW=0.21
σ
Overall volatility
=0.37
Ir
Information ratio =0.16

Stone Harbor Alerts and Suggestions

Stone Harbor generates negative expected return over the last 30 days

Stone HarborPrice Density Drivers

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