Exela Technologies Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 16.42

XELA Stock  USD 2.00  0.34  14.53%   
Exela Technologies' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Exela Technologies. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Exela Technologies based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Exela Technologies over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $2.0 is a CALL option contract on Exela Technologies' common stock with a strick price of 2.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-04-18 at 15:37:48 for $0.15 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.05, and an ask price of $0.15. The implied volatility as of the 19th of April is 362.03. View All Exela options

Closest to current price Exela long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Exela Technologies' future price is the expected price of Exela Technologies instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Exela Technologies performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Exela Technologies Backtesting, Exela Technologies Valuation, Exela Technologies Correlation, Exela Technologies Hype Analysis, Exela Technologies Volatility, Exela Technologies History as well as Exela Technologies Performance.
For information on how to trade Exela Stock refer to our How to Trade Exela Stock guide.
  
At present, Exela Technologies' Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price Cash Flow Ratio is expected to grow to 5.94, whereas Price To Sales Ratio is forecasted to decline to 0.02. Please specify Exela Technologies' target price for which you would like Exela Technologies odds to be computed.

Exela Technologies Target Price Odds to finish over 16.42

The tendency of Exela Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 16.42  or more in 90 days
 2.00 90 days 16.42 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Exela Technologies to move over $ 16.42  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Exela Technologies probability density function shows the probability of Exela Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Exela Technologies price to stay between its current price of $ 2.00  and $ 16.42  at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.88 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Exela Technologies has a beta of 0.69. This entails as returns on the market go up, Exela Technologies average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Exela Technologies will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Exela Technologies has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite.
   Exela Technologies Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Exela Technologies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exela Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Exela Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.102.018.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.101.958.49
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.031.698.23
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
1.822.002.22
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Exela Technologies. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Exela Technologies' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Exela Technologies' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Exela Technologies.

Exela Technologies Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Exela Technologies is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Exela Technologies' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Exela Technologies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Exela Technologies within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.19
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.69
σ
Overall volatility
0.27
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Exela Technologies Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Exela Technologies for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Exela Technologies can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Exela Technologies generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Exela Technologies has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Exela Technologies has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company currently holds 1.11 B in liabilities. Exela Technologies has a current ratio of 0.35, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Exela Technologies until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Exela Technologies' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Exela Technologies sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Exela to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Exela Technologies' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.06 B. Net Loss for the year was (125.16 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 277.51 M.
Exela Technologies has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from news.google.com: Exela Technologies, Inc. to Host Fourth Quarter 2023 and Full Year 2023 Financial Results Conference Call - Yahoo Finance

Exela Technologies Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Exela Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Exela Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exela Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares OutstandingM
Cash And Short Term Investments67.2 M

Exela Technologies Technical Analysis

Exela Technologies' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Exela Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Exela Technologies. In general, you should focus on analyzing Exela Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Exela Technologies Predictive Forecast Models

Exela Technologies' time-series forecasting models is one of many Exela Technologies' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Exela Technologies' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Exela Technologies

Checking the ongoing alerts about Exela Technologies for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Exela Technologies help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Exela Technologies generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Exela Technologies has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Exela Technologies has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company currently holds 1.11 B in liabilities. Exela Technologies has a current ratio of 0.35, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Exela Technologies until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Exela Technologies' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Exela Technologies sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Exela to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Exela Technologies' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.06 B. Net Loss for the year was (125.16 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 277.51 M.
Exela Technologies has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from news.google.com: Exela Technologies, Inc. to Host Fourth Quarter 2023 and Full Year 2023 Financial Results Conference Call - Yahoo Finance
When determining whether Exela Technologies offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Exela Technologies' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Exela Technologies Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Exela Technologies Stock:

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When running Exela Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Exela Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Exela Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Exela Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Exela Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Exela Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Exela Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Exela Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Exela Technologies. If investors know Exela will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Exela Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(22.37)
Revenue Per Share
177.843
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
Return On Assets
0.0021
The market value of Exela Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Exela that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Exela Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Exela Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Exela Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Exela Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Exela Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Exela Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Exela Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.