Alleghany Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 784.0

Y -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: December 31, 2019  

Alleghany probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alleghany Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alleghany time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alleghany odds to be computed. See also Alleghany Backtesting, Alleghany Valuation, Alleghany Correlation, Alleghany Hype Analysis, Alleghany Volatility, Alleghany History as well as Alleghany Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Alleghany Target Price Odds to finish below 784.0

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 784.00  or more in 30 days
 790.20 30 days 784.00 
about 70.89
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alleghany to drop to $ 784.00  or more in 30 days from now is about 70.89 (This Alleghany Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Alleghany Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Alleghany price to stay between $ 784.00  and its current price of $790.2 at the end of the 30-day period is about 15.02 .
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, Alleghany has beta of 0.4731 . This means as returns on market go up, Alleghany average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Alleghany Corporation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0077 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0077% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Alleghany Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.007696
β
Beta against DOW=0.47
σ
Overall volatility
=11.57
Ir
Information ratio =0.02

Alleghany Alerts and Suggestions

Over 84.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.insidermonkey.com: Hedge Funds Are Cashing Out Of Wynn Resorts, Limited - Insider Monkey

AlleghanyPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out0.73%
Short Percent Of Float0.84%
Float Shares13.9M
Shares Short Prior Month116.55k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day41.13k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month50.96k
Date Short InterestNovember 15, 2019
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