Alcoa Probability Of Bankruptcy

AA -  USA Stock  

USD 38.27  0.69  1.77%

Alcoa Corp Probability Of Bankruptcy is used to show its chance of financial distress over the next two years of operations under current economic and market conditions. Alcoa Corp Probability Of Bankruptcy is determined by interpolating and adjusting Alcoa Altman Z Score to account for off-balance-sheet items and missing or unfiled public information. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the Alcoa balance sheet as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Please continue to Alcoa Corp Piotroski F Score and Alcoa Corp Altman Z Score analysis.

Search Probability Of Bankruptcy 

 
Refresh
Alcoa Corp Average Assets are projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Average Assets were at 14.02 Billion. The current year Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA is expected to grow to about 840.1 M, whereas Net Income Per Employee is forecasted to decline to (14.2 K).

Alcoa Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

Alcoa Corp's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
 2018 2019 2020 2021 (projected)
Interest Expense122 M121 M146 M162.11 M
Gross Profit3.35 B1.9 B1.32 B1.59 B
Probability Of Bankruptcy 
 = 
Normalized 
 
Z-Score 
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current Alcoa Corp Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  49%  
Most of Alcoa Corp's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Alcoa Corp is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Alcoa Corp probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Alcoa Corp odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Alcoa Corp financial health.
The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alcoa Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Alcoa Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Alcoa Corp is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Ford stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Alcoa Corp's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Alcoa Corp's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Alcoa Corp's interrelated accounts and indicators.
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Compare to competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, Alcoa Corp has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 49.0%. This is 10.51% higher than that of the Basic Materials sector and 22.35% higher than that of the Aluminum industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 23.02% lower than that of the firm.

Alcoa Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Alcoa Corp's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Alcoa Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alcoa Corp by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
Alcoa Corp is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

Alcoa Corp Main Bankruptcy Drivers

201620172018201920202021 (projected)
Return on Average Assets(0.024)0.0160.015(0.074)(0.012)(0.0129)
Asset Turnover0.560.680.810.690.660.74
Gross Margin0.190.160.230.250.180.14
Total Debt1.45 B1.4 B1.8 B1.8 B2.46 B2.08 B
Total Liabilities9.04 B10.65 B8.54 B8.74 B9.84 B9.92 B
Current Liabilities2.82 B3.25 B2.92 B2.56 B2.76 B3.06 B
Total Assets16.74 B17.45 B16.13 B14.63 B14.86 B14.73 B
Current Assets3.18 B4.24 B4.33 B3.53 B4.52 B4.47 B
Net Cash Flow from Operations(311 M)1.22 B448 M686 M394 M450 M

Alcoa Fundamentals

About Alcoa Corp Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Alcoa Corp's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Alcoa Corp using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alcoa Corp based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and internationally. The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Alcoa Corp operates under Aluminum classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 12900 people.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Alcoa Corp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run Idea Optimizer Now

   

Idea Optimizer

Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
All  Next Launch Module

Pair Trading with Alcoa Corp

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alcoa Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alcoa Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Alcoa Corp Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alcoa Corp and Aluminum Corp. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Please continue to Alcoa Corp Piotroski F Score and Alcoa Corp Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the Alcoa Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alcoa Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

Complementary Tools for Alcoa Stock analysis

When running Alcoa Corp price analysis, check to measure Alcoa Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcoa Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Alcoa Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcoa Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcoa Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcoa Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Go
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
Go
Commodity Channel Index
Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum
Go
Earnings Calls
Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges
Go
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Go
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Go
Pair Correlation
Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
Go
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like
Go
Global Markets Map
Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes
Go
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
Shere Portfolio
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alcoa Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.