American Airlines Group Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| AAL Stock | USD 14.23 0.34 2.45% |
American | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
American Airlines Group Company odds of financial distress Analysis
American Airlines' Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current American Airlines Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 38% |
Most of American Airlines' fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, American Airlines Group is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of American Airlines probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting American Airlines odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of American Airlines Group financial health.
Is American Airlines' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Airlines. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Airlines listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | Earnings Share 1.21 | Revenue Per Share 80.764 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets 0.0396 |
The market value of American Airlines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Airlines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Airlines' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Airlines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Airlines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Airlines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Airlines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Airlines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
American Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for American Airlines is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of American Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since American Airlines' main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of American Airlines' historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of American Airlines' interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, American Airlines Group has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 38.0%. This is 10.76% lower than that of the Passenger Airlines sector and 11.03% lower than that of the Industrials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 4.59% higher than that of the company.
American Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses American Airlines' direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of American Airlines could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Airlines by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.American Airlines is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.
American Airlines Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | 0.0281 | (0.14) | (0.03) | 0.001962 | 0.013 | 0.0137 | |
| Asset Turnover | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.28 | 0.45 | 0.84 | 0.87 | |
| Net Debt | 33.2B | 40.8B | 45.9B | 43.2B | 39.2B | 41.1B | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 18.3B | 16.6B | 19.0B | 21.5B | 22.1B | 23.2B | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 41.8B | 52.3B | 54.8B | 49.0B | 46.2B | 23.1B | |
| Total Assets | 60.0B | 62.0B | 66.4B | 64.7B | 63.1B | 34.1B | |
| Total Current Assets | 8.2B | 11.1B | 17.3B | 15.3B | 13.6B | 7.3B | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | 3.8B | (6.5B) | 704M | 2.2B | 3.8B | 4.0B |
American Airlines ESG Sustainability
Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, American Airlines' sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to American Airlines' managers, analysts, and investors.Environment Score | Governance Score | Social Score |
American Fundamentals
| Return On Asset | 0.0396 | ||||
| Profit Margin | 0.02 % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.05 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 40.75 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 654.76 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.80 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 52.98 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 40.56 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 7.08 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 0.16 X | ||||
| Revenue | 52.79 B | ||||
| Gross Profit | 11.44 B | ||||
| EBITDA | 6.26 B | ||||
| Net Income | 822 M | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 11.23 B | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 17.28 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 40.66 B | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 7.53 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 0.79 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | (7.95) X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 3.8 B | ||||
| Short Ratio | 1.40 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | 1.21 X | ||||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 0.28 X | ||||
| Target Price | 17.5 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 132.1 K | ||||
| Beta | 1.57 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 8.53 B | ||||
| Total Asset | 63.06 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (7.69 B) | ||||
| Working Capital | (8.49 B) | ||||
| Current Asset | 9.98 B | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 13.61 B | ||||
| Five Year Return | 1.27 % | ||||
| Net Asset | 63.06 B |
About American Airlines Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze American Airlines Group's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of American Airlines using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Airlines Group based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
American Airlines Investors Sentiment
The influence of American Airlines' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in American. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to American Airlines' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Airlines Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
American Airlines' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for American Airlines' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average American Airlines' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on American Airlines.
American Airlines Implied Volatility | 78.14 |
American Airlines' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Airlines Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Airlines' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Airlines stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Airlines' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Airlines in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Airlines' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Airlines options trading.
Pair Trading with American Airlines
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Airlines position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Airlines will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Airlines could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Airlines when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Airlines - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Airlines Group to buy it.
The correlation of American Airlines is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Airlines moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Airlines moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Airlines can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out American Airlines Piotroski F Score and American Airlines Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the American Airlines information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Airlines' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis
When running American Airlines' price analysis, check to measure American Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of American Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Airlines' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Airlines. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Airlines listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | Earnings Share 1.21 | Revenue Per Share 80.764 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets 0.0396 |
The market value of American Airlines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Airlines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Airlines' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Airlines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Airlines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Airlines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Airlines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Airlines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.