ADTRAN Z Score

ADTN Stock

USD 8.91 0.10 1.14%

Altman Z Score is one of the simplest fundamental models to determine how likely your company is to fail. The module uses available fundamental data of a given equity to approximate the Altman Z score. Altman Z Score is determined by evaluating five fundamental price points available from the company's current public disclosure documents. Check out ADTRAN Piotroski F Score and ADTRAN Valuation analysis.

As of 31st of May 2023, Capital Expenditure is likely to drop to about (18.4 M). In addition to that, Return on Invested Capital is likely to drop to -0.13. ADTRAN Direct Expenses is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. ADTRAN reported last year Direct Expenses of 698.28 Million. As of 31st of May 2023, Interest Expense is likely to grow to about 3.7 M, while Consolidated Income is likely to drop (9.1 M).

ADTRAN Z Score Analysis

ADTRAN's Z-Score is a simple linear, multi-factor model that measures the financial health and economic stability of a company. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm going into bankruptcy within next 24 months or two fiscal years from the day stated on the accounting statements used to calculate it. The model uses five fundamental business ratios that are weighted according to algorithm of Professor Edward Altman who developed it in the late 1960s at New York University..

	2020	2021	2022	2023 (projected)
Interest Expense	5 K	34 K	3.44 M	3.71 M
Gross Profit	217.55 M	218.38 M	327.25 M	286.48 M

Interest Expense Gross Profit

Z Score

Sum Of

5 Factors

More About Z Score | All Equity Analysis

Current ADTRAN Z Score

9.0

Most of ADTRAN's fundamental indicators, such as Z Score, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, ADTRAN Inc is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.

First Factor

1.2 * (

Working Capital

Total Assets )

Second Factor

1.4 * (

Retained Earnings

Total Assets )

Thrid Factor

3.3 * (

EBITAD

Total Assets )

Fouth Factor

0.6 * (

Market Value of Equity

Total Liabilities )

Fifth Factor

0.99 * (

Revenue

Total Assets )

ADTRAN Z Score Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for ADTRAN is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of ADTRAN Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Z Score. Since ADTRAN's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of ADTRAN's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of ADTRAN's interrelated accounts and indicators.

	Accounts Payable	Total Assets	Current Assets	Cash and Equivalents	Total Debt	Debt Current	Deferred Revenue	Investments Current	Total Liabilities	Current Liabilities	Tax Assets	Tax Liabilities
Accounts Payable		0.9	0.86	0.64	0.86	0.78	0.45	-0.52	0.97	0.98	0.82	0.97
Total Assets	0.9		0.95	0.61	0.99	0.6	0.76	-0.13	0.98	0.96	0.87	0.95
Current Assets	0.86	0.95		0.6	0.93	0.6	0.72	-0.14	0.93	0.92	0.78	0.9
Cash and Equivalents	0.64	0.61	0.6		0.64	0.21	0.18	-0.47	0.64	0.65	0.8	0.7
Total Debt	0.86	0.99	0.93	0.64		0.51	0.75	-0.1	0.95	0.93	0.88	0.93
Debt Current	0.78	0.6	0.6	0.21	0.51		0.25	-0.57	0.72	0.74	0.36	0.7
Deferred Revenue	0.45	0.76	0.72	0.18	0.75	0.25		0.49	0.63	0.58	0.53	0.55
Investments Current	-0.52	-0.13	-0.14	-0.47	-0.1	-0.57	0.49		-0.33	-0.39	-0.27	-0.42
Total Liabilities	0.97	0.98	0.93	0.64	0.95	0.72	0.63	-0.33		1.0	0.85	0.99
Current Liabilities	0.98	0.96	0.92	0.65	0.93	0.74	0.58	-0.39	1.0		0.84	0.99
Tax Assets	0.82	0.87	0.78	0.8	0.88	0.36	0.53	-0.27	0.85	0.84		0.88
Tax Liabilities	0.97	0.95	0.9	0.7	0.93	0.7	0.55	-0.42	0.99	0.99	0.88

Click cells to compare fundamentals

To calculate a Z-Score, one would need to know a company's current working capital, its total assets and liabilities, and the amount of its latest earnings as well as earnings before interest and tax. Z-Scores can be used to compare the odds of bankruptcy of companies in a similar line of business or firms operating in the same industry. Companies with Z-Scores above 3.1 are generally considered to be stable and healthy with a low probability of bankruptcy. Scores that fall between 1.8 and 3.1 lie in a so-called 'grey area,' with scores of less than 1 indicating the highest probability of distress. Z Score is a used widely measure by financial auditors, accountants, money managers, loan processors, wealth advisers, and day traders. In the last 25 years, many financial models that utilize z-scores proved it to be successful as a predictor of corporate bankruptcy.

Competition

Predict ADTRAN

In accordance with the company's disclosures, ADTRAN Inc has a Z Score of 9.0. This is 33.09% lower than that of the Communications Equipment sector and 72.15% lower than that of the Information Technology industry. The z score for all United States stocks is 3.21% lower than that of the firm.

ADTRAN Z Score Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses ADTRAN's direct or indirect competition against its Z Score to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of ADTRAN could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ADTRAN by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.

ADTRAN is currently under evaluation in z score category among related companies.

ADTRAN Current Valuation Drivers

We derive many important indicators used in calculating different scores of ADTRAN from analyzing ADTRAN's financial statements. These drivers represent accounts that assess ADTRAN's ability to generate profits relative to its revenue, operating costs, and shareholders' equity. Below are some of ADTRAN's important valuation drivers and their relationship over time.

	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023 (projected)
Net Income Per Employee	(10.18 K)	(29.6 K)	1.69 K	(6.47 K)	(616)	(632.21)
Revenue Per Employee	278.57 K	296.12 K	359.52 K	421.73 K	310.11 K	354.96 K
Average Assets	639.77 M	599.35 M	519.51 M	552.28 M	1.24 B	1.34 B
Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA	(16.95 M)	(6.5 M)	10.39 M	9.81 M	6.88 M	7.06 M
Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization USD	(16.95 M)	(6.5 M)	10.39 M	9.81 M	6.88 M	7.06 M
Earnings before Tax	(33.37 M)	(24.78 M)	(6.25 M)	(6.3 M)	(64.11 M)	(65.8 M)
Average Equity	461.31 M	416.23 M	367.61 M	366.69 M	641.64 M	552.98 M
Enterprise Value	443.19 M	402.2 M	636.91 M	1.04 B	1.48 B	1.19 B
Free Cash Flow	47.34 M	(11.97 M)	(22.93 M)	(2.66 M)	(61.29 M)	(62.9 M)
Invested Capital	389.82 M	348.44 M	340.87 M	333.85 M	706.68 M	585.26 M
Invested Capital Average	441.97 M	359.36 M	319.85 M	331.82 M	487.56 M	467.44 M
Market Capitalization	511.76 M	473 M	708.31 M	1.11 B	1.46 B	1.19 B
Tangible Asset Value	587.74 M	510.33 M	495.24 M	542.76 M	1.16 B	1.25 B
Working Capital	237.42 M	207.6 M	223.22 M	220.97 M	393.78 M	358.95 M

ADTRAN Institutional Holders

Institutional Holdings refers to the ownership stake in ADTRAN that is held by large financial organizations, pension funds or endowments. Institutions may purchase large blocks of ADTRAN's outstanding shares and can exert considerable influence upon its management. Institutional holders may also work to push the share price higher once they own the stock. Extensive social media coverage, TV shows, articles in high-profile magazines, and presentations at investor conferences help move the stock higher, increasing ADTRAN's value.

	Last Transaction	Type	Shares	Value
Blackrock Inc	2023-03-31	Common Shares	12.3 M	195.3 M
Vanguard Group Inc	2023-03-31	Common Shares	8.1 M	128.4 M
Bank Of New York Mellon Corp	2023-03-31	Common Shares	3.3 M	51.9 M
Dnb Asset Management As	2023-03-31	Common Shares	2.8 M	44.3 M
State Street Corp	2023-03-31	Common Shares	2.6 M	41.5 M
Fuller Thaler Asset Management Inc	2023-03-31	Common Shares	2.2 M	34.1 M
Westwood Holdings Group Inc	2023-03-31	Common Shares	2 M	31.5 M
Schonfeld Strategic Advisors Llc	2023-03-31	Common Shares	1.9 M	30.1 M
Dimensional Fund Advisors Lp	2023-03-31	Common Shares	1.5 M	24 M
Geode Capital Management Llc	2023-03-31	Common Shares	1.4 M	22.6 M
Janus Henderson Group Plc	2023-03-31	Common Shares	1.3 M	20.2 M

ADTRAN Fundamentals

	Return On Equity	(0.06) %
	Return On Asset	(0.05) %
	Profit Margin	(0.0296) %
	Operating Margin	(0.09) %
	Current Valuation	1.57 B
	Shares Outstanding	78.66 M
	Shares Owned by Insiders	1.62 %
	Shares Owned by Institutions	91.38 %
	Number of Shares Shorted	1.79 M
	Price to Earning	405.00 X
	Price to Book	1.78 X
	Price to Sales	1.83 X
	Revenue	1.03 B
	Gross Profit	327.26 M
	EBITDA	28.8 M
	Net Income	(8.89 M)
	Cash and Equivalents	111.9 M
	Cash per Share	1.53 X
	Total Debt	51.27 M
	Debt to Equity	0.043 %
	Current Ratio	1.67 X
	Book Value Per Share	10.47 X
	Cash Flow from Operations	(43.55 M)
	Short Ratio	1.78 X
	Earnings Per Share	(0.45) X
	Price to Earnings To Growth	11.04 X
	Target Price	13.75
	Number of Employees	3.31 K
	Beta	1.37
	Market Capitalization	692.95 M
	Total Asset	1.88 B
	Retained Earnings	55.34 M
	Working Capital	393.78 M
	Current Asset	235.56 M
	Current Liabilities	32.05 M
	Z Score	9.0
	Annual Yield	0.0398 %
	Five Year Return	2.52 %
	Net Asset	1.88 B
	Last Dividend Paid	0.36

About ADTRAN Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze ADTRAN Inc's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of ADTRAN using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of ADTRAN Inc based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.

Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides end-to-end fiber networking solutions for communications service provider, enterprises, and government customers in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama. Adtran Holdings operates under Communication Equipment classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 1335 people.

ADTRAN Investors Sentiment

The influence of ADTRAN's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in ADTRAN. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Investor biases related to ADTRAN's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ADTRAN. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ADTRAN can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ADTRAN Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.

ADTRAN's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for ADTRAN's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average ADTRAN's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on ADTRAN.

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ADTRAN in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ADTRAN's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ADTRAN options trading.

Pair Trading with ADTRAN

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ADTRAN position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ADTRAN will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with ADTRAN Stock

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Moving against ADTRAN Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to ADTRAN could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ADTRAN when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ADTRAN - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ADTRAN Inc to buy it.

The correlation of ADTRAN is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ADTRAN moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ADTRAN Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ADTRAN can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.

Pair Correlation Correlation Matching

Check out ADTRAN Piotroski F Score and ADTRAN Valuation analysis. You can also try Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

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When running ADTRAN's price analysis, check to measure ADTRAN's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ADTRAN is operating at the current time. Most of ADTRAN's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ADTRAN's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ADTRAN's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ADTRAN to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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Is ADTRAN's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ADTRAN. If investors know ADTRAN will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ADTRAN listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Quarterly Earnings Growth

(0.60)

Dividend Share

0.36

Earnings Share

(0.45)

Revenue Per Share

17.154

Quarterly Revenue Growth

1.096

The market value of ADTRAN Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ADTRAN that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ADTRAN's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ADTRAN's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ADTRAN's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ADTRAN's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between ADTRAN's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ADTRAN is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ADTRAN's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party. Check out ADTRAN Piotroski F Score and ADTRAN Valuation analysis.

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ADTRAN Z Score

ADTRAN Z Score Analysis

Current ADTRAN Z Score

ADTRAN Z Score Driver Correlations

ADTRAN Z Score Peer Comparison

ADTRAN Current Valuation Drivers

ADTRAN Institutional Holders

ADTRAN Fundamentals

About ADTRAN Fundamental Analysis

ADTRAN Investors Sentiment

Pair Trading with ADTRAN

Moving together with ADTRAN Stock

Moving against ADTRAN Stock

Complementary Tools for ADTRAN Stock analysis

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