AAR Corp Probability Of Bankruptcy

AIR -  USA Stock  

USD 31.91  0.14  0.44%

AAR Corp Probability Of Bankruptcy is used to show its chance of financial distress over the next two years of operations under current economic and market conditions. AAR Corp Probability Of Bankruptcy is determined by interpolating and adjusting AAR Corp Altman Z Score to account for off-balance-sheet items and missing or unfiled public information. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the AAR Corp balance sheet as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Please continue to AAR Corp Piotroski F Score and AAR Corp Altman Z Score analysis.

Search Probability Of Bankruptcy 

 
Refresh
AAR Corp Net Income Per Employee is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. AAR Corp reported last year Net Income Per Employee of 7,276. As of 09/18/2021, Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA is likely to grow to about 102.3 M, while Average Assets are likely to drop slightly above 1.6 B.

AAR Corp Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

AAR Corp's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
 2019 2020 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.660.14
Interest Coverage4.9117.71
Probability Of Bankruptcy 
 = 
Normalized 
 
Z-Score 
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current AAR Corp Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  16%  
Most of AAR Corp's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, AAR Corp is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of AAR Corp probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting AAR Corp odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of AAR Corp financial health.
The market value of AAR Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AAR Corp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AAR Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AAR Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AAR Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AAR Corp underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AAR Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AAR Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AAR Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

AAR Corp Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for AAR Corp is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Ford stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since AAR Corp's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of AAR Corp's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of AAR Corp's interrelated accounts and indicators.
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Compare to competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, AAR Corp has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 16.0%. This is 62.42% lower than that of the Industrials sector and 55.76% lower than that of the Aerospace & Defense industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 59.83% higher than that of the company.

AAR Corp Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses AAR Corp's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of AAR Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AAR Corp by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
AAR Corp is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

AAR Corp Main Bankruptcy Drivers

201620172018201920202021 (projected)
Return on Average Assets0.0310.0380.010.0020.0220.0211
Asset Turnover0.811.011.081.141.321.13
Total Debt154.2 M177.2 M141.7 M670.9 M193.6 M263.26 M
Total Liabilities589.9 M588.4 M611.3 M1.18 B565.3 M655.01 M
Current Liabilities335 M333.3 M357.5 M383.1 M336.8 M337.24 M
Total Assets1.5 B1.52 B1.52 B2.08 B1.54 B1.55 B
Current Assets888.4 M942.7 M952.5 M1.44 B937 M1.08 B
Net Cash Flow from Operations21.8 M64.3 M67.4 M(36.1 M)105.2 M113.51 M
Weighted Average Shares34.32 M34.64 M35.07 M35.1 M35.32 M34.22 M

AAR Corp Fundamentals

About AAR Corp Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze AAR Corp's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of AAR Corp using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of AAR Corp based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
AAR Corp. provides products and services to commercial aviation, government, and defense markets worldwide. AAR Corp. was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Wood Dale, Illinois. AAR Corp operates under Aerospace Defense classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 4700 people.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in AAR Corp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run Equity Analysis Now

   

Equity Analysis

Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
All  Next Launch Module

Pair Trading with AAR Corp

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AAR Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AAR Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

AAR Corp Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AAR Corp and Ehang Holdings. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Please continue to AAR Corp Piotroski F Score and AAR Corp Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the AAR Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other AAR Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.

Complementary Tools for AAR Corp Stock analysis

When running AAR Corp price analysis, check to measure AAR Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AAR Corp is operating at the current time. Most of AAR Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AAR Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AAR Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AAR Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Price Transformation
Use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets
Go
Portfolio Rebalancing
Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets
Go
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Go
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Go
CEO Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Go
The market value of AAR Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AAR Corp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AAR Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AAR Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AAR Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AAR Corp underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AAR Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AAR Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AAR Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.