Blue Apron Beneish M Score

APRN
 Stock
  

USD 5.21  0.14  2.62%   

This module uses fundamental data of Blue Apron to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Blue Apron M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Please continue to Blue Apron Piotroski F Score and Blue Apron Altman Z Score analysis.
  
Blue Apron Total Debt is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Total Debt is estimated at 83.64 Million. Debt Non Current is expected to rise to about 81.3 M this year, although the value of Debt Current will most likely fall to about 3.1 M. Blue Apron Accrued Expenses Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Accrued Expenses Turnover is estimated at 22.59. Revenue to Assets is expected to rise to 2.26 this year, although the value of Operating Margin will most likely fall to (16.32) .
At this time, it appears that Blue Apron Holdings is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Blue Apron's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Blue Apron executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Blue Apron's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-3.35
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables0.88Focus
Asset QualityN/AFocus
Expense Coverage1.01Focus
Gross Margin Strengs1.01Focus
Accruals Factor1.01Focus
Depreciation Resistance1.22Focus
Net Sales Growth1.16Focus
Financial Leverage Condition1.19Focus

Blue Apron Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Blue Apron's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Revenues547.8 M470.4 M
Fairly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Selling General and Administrative Expense85.1 M72.1 M
Fairly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion22.6 M22.2 M
Fairly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Assets243.7 M231.7 M
Sufficiently Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Property Plant and Equipment Net139.8 M108.4 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Trade and Non Trade Receivables240.2 K234 K
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Stable
Total Liabilities186.9 M151.7 M
Fairly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Assets122.9 M119.6 M
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Stable
Assets Non Current144 M112.1 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Liabilities74.2 M79.4 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Liabilities Non Current100.6 M72.3 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Debt83.6 M65.3 M
Significantly Up
Decreasing
Very volatile
Debt Current3.1 M3.1 M
Slightly Down
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Non Current81.3 M61.8 M
Significantly Up
Decreasing
Very volatile
Gross Margin0.360.358
Slightly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile

Blue Apron Holdings Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Blue Apron's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Blue Apron in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Blue Apron's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Blue Apron Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Depreciation Amortization and Accretion

22.61 Million

Blue Apron Depreciation Amortization and Accretion is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Depreciation Amortization and Accretion is estimated at 22.61 Million

Blue Apron Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Blue Apron. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Revenues881.19 M667.6 M454.87 M460.61 M470.38 M547.8 M
Total Assets517.71 M354.9 M266.06 M215.34 M231.71 M243.7 M
Current Assets282.75 M142 M77.75 M86.07 M119.63 M122.87 M
Assets Non Current234.96 M212.9 M188.32 M129.26 M112.07 M144.02 M
Total Liabilities293.86 M235.6 M198.07 M151.36 M151.65 M186.88 M
Current Liabilities90.71 M67.54 M60.46 M75.09 M79.37 M74.15 M
Total Debt195.03 M154.3 M125.15 M68.2 M65.27 M83.64 M
Debt Non Current195.03 M154.3 M125.15 M64.7 M61.77 M81.3 M
Operating Income(188.76 M)(114.38 M)(52.1 M)(38.56 M)(71.12 M)(76.73 M)
Gross Margin0.230.330.290.350.390.36

About Blue Apron Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Blue Apron Holdings's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Blue Apron using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Blue Apron Holdings based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Blue Apron Holdings, Inc. operates a direct-to-consumer platform that delivers original recipes with fresh and seasonal ingredients. Blue Apron Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York. Blue Apron operates under Internet Retail classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 2010 people.

Blue Apron Investors Sentiment

The influence of Blue Apron's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Blue Apron. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Blue Apron's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Blue Apron. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Blue Apron can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Blue Apron Holdings. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Blue Apron's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Blue Apron's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Blue Apron's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Blue Apron.

Blue Apron Implied Volatility

    
  431.3  
Blue Apron's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Blue Apron Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Blue Apron's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Blue Apron stock will not fluctuate a lot when Blue Apron's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Blue Apron in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Blue Apron's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Blue Apron options trading.

Pair Trading with Blue Apron

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Blue Apron position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Blue Apron will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Blue Apron could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Blue Apron when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Blue Apron - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Blue Apron Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Blue Apron is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Blue Apron moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Blue Apron Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Blue Apron can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Blue Apron Piotroski F Score and Blue Apron Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the Blue Apron Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Blue Apron's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

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When running Blue Apron Holdings price analysis, check to measure Blue Apron's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Blue Apron is operating at the current time. Most of Blue Apron's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Blue Apron's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Blue Apron's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Blue Apron to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Blue Apron's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Blue Apron. If investors know Blue Apron will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Blue Apron listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
198 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.002
Return On Assets
-0.31
Return On Equity
-2.12
The market value of Blue Apron Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Blue Apron that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Blue Apron's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Blue Apron's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Blue Apron's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Blue Apron's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Blue Apron's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Blue Apron value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Blue Apron's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.