Ardelyx Stock Beneish M Score
| ARDX Stock | USD 6.39 0.12 1.84% |
Ardelyx | Beneish M Score |
At this time, it appears that Ardelyx is a possible manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Ardelyx's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Ardelyx executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Ardelyx's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-1.86
Beneish M Score - Possible Manipulator
Ardelyx Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends
The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Ardelyx's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
| Current Value | Last Year | Change From Last Year | 10 Year Trend | ||||||
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| Total Revenue | 130.7 M | 124.5 M |
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| Total Assets | 180.1 M | 297.6 M |
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| Total Current Assets | 166.5 M | 246.1 M |
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| Non Current Assets Total | 54 M | 51.5 M |
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| Property Plant Equipment | 1.3 M | 1.4 M |
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| Depreciation And Amortization | 1.5 M | 1.3 M |
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| Selling General Administrative | 141.1 M | 134.4 M |
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| Total Current Liabilities | 30.7 M | 50.4 M |
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| Non Current Liabilities Total | 84.4 M | 80.4 M |
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| Gross Profit Margin | 0.7 | 0.857 |
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Ardelyx Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix
One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Ardelyx's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Ardelyx in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Ardelyx's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.
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About Ardelyx Beneish M Score
M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.
Depreciation And Amortization |
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Ardelyx Earnings Manipulation Drivers
Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Ardelyx. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Net Receivables | 750K | 0.0 | 502K | 7.7M | 22.0M | 23.1M | |
| Total Revenue | 5.3M | 7.6M | 10.1M | 52.2M | 124.5M | 130.7M | |
| Total Assets | 259.8M | 201.6M | 149.9M | 190.1M | 297.6M | 180.1M | |
| Total Current Assets | 252.4M | 195.2M | 134.8M | 154.5M | 246.1M | 166.5M | |
| Net Debt | (126.4M) | (37.7M) | (26.9M) | (59.7M) | 34.5M | 36.2M | |
| Short Term Debt | 3.8M | 6.3M | 35.8M | 30.6M | 4.4M | 4.2M | |
| Long Term Debt | 49.2M | 48.8M | 46.6M | 49.8M | 57.3M | 60.2M | |
| Operating Income | (91.3M) | (90.8M) | (154.3M) | (63.8M) | (63.3M) | (66.4M) | |
| Investments | 23.7M | (31.1M) | 52.8M | 16.7M | (100.2M) | (95.2M) | |
| Gross Profit Margin | 0.89 | 0.98 | 0.9 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.7 |
About Ardelyx Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Ardelyx's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Ardelyx using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ardelyx based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Ardelyx Investors Sentiment
The influence of Ardelyx's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Ardelyx. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Ardelyx's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ardelyx. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ardelyx can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ardelyx. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Ardelyx's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Ardelyx's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Ardelyx's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Ardelyx.
Ardelyx Implied Volatility | 101.89 |
Ardelyx's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ardelyx stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ardelyx's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ardelyx stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ardelyx's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ardelyx in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ardelyx's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ardelyx options trading.
Pair Trading with Ardelyx
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ardelyx position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ardelyx will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Ardelyx Stock
| 0.67 | EGRX | Eagle Pharmaceuticals | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | JNJ | Johnson Johnson Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
Moving against Ardelyx Stock
| 0.61 | ELYM | Eliem Therapeutics | PairCorr |
| 0.6 | ANIP | ANI Pharmaceuticals Financial Report 13th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.59 | OPT | Opthea | PairCorr |
| 0.56 | AVTE | Aerovate Therapeutics Financial Report 20th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.43 | PAHC | Phibro Animal Health Financial Report 1st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ardelyx could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ardelyx when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ardelyx - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ardelyx to buy it.
The correlation of Ardelyx is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ardelyx moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ardelyx moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ardelyx can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Ardelyx Piotroski F Score and Ardelyx Altman Z Score analysis. For more information on how to buy Ardelyx Stock please use our How to Invest in Ardelyx guide.Note that the Ardelyx information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ardelyx's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Complementary Tools for Ardelyx Stock analysis
When running Ardelyx's price analysis, check to measure Ardelyx's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ardelyx is operating at the current time. Most of Ardelyx's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ardelyx's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ardelyx's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ardelyx to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements |
Is Ardelyx's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ardelyx. If investors know Ardelyx will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ardelyx listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.30) | Revenue Per Share 0.567 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.22) | Return On Assets (0.16) | Return On Equity (0.50) |
The market value of Ardelyx is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ardelyx that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ardelyx's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ardelyx's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ardelyx's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ardelyx's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ardelyx's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ardelyx is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ardelyx's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.