Arena Group Holdings Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| AREN Stock | USD 2.94 0.18 5.77% |
Arena | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
Arena Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis
Arena Group's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Revenues USD | 128.0M | 189.1M | 220.9M | 238.4M | Revenues | 128.0M | 189.1M | 220.9M | 238.4M |
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current Arena Group Probability Of Bankruptcy | Over 64% |
Most of Arena Group's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Arena Group Holdings is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Arena Group probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Arena Group odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Arena Group Holdings financial health.
Is Arena Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arena Group. If investors know Arena will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arena Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.92) | Revenue Per Share 11.313 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.107 | Return On Assets (0.15) |
The market value of Arena Group Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arena that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arena Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arena Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arena Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arena Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arena Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arena Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arena Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Arena Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Arena Group is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Arena Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Arena Group's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Arena Group's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Arena Group's interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, Arena Group Holdings has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 64%. This is 23.98% higher than that of the Entertainment sector and significantly higher than that of the Communication Services industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 60.68% lower than that of the firm.
Arena Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Arena Group's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Arena Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arena Group by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.Arena Group is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.
Arena Group Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | ||
| Return on Average Assets | (2.36) | (0.33) | (0.52) | (0.45) | (0.39) | (0.42) | |
| Asset Turnover | 0.31 | 0.46 | 0.63 | 0.96 | 1.21 | 0.99 | |
| Gross Margin | (0.34) | 0.11 | 0.2 | 0.42 | 0.4 | 0.43 | |
| Total Debt | 9.0M | 62.4M | 90.3M | 83.3M | 115.4M | 95.8M | |
| Total Liabilities | 29.7M | 178.4M | 216.1M | 211.8M | 242.7M | 261.8M | |
| Current Liabilities | 21.5M | 87.5M | 107.6M | 116.4M | 216.4M | 233.4M | |
| Total Assets | 37.2M | 197.0M | 214.2M | 174.0M | 203.7M | 219.8M | |
| Current Assets | 9.5M | 48.2M | 73.8M | 77.7M | 78.7M | 84.9M | |
| Net Cash Flow from Operations | (7.4M) | (57.0M) | (32.3M) | (14.7M) | (11.3M) | (12.2M) | |
| Weighted Average Shares | 1.2M | 1.7M | 2.1M | 11.4M | 17.6M | 19.0M | |
| Weighted Average Shares Diluted | 1.2M | 1.7M | 2.1M | 11.4M | 17.6M | 19.0M |
Arena Fundamentals
| Return On Asset | -0.15 | ||||
| Profit Margin | (0.27) % | ||||
| Operating Margin | (0.11) % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 177.7 M | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 23.83 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 19.88 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 55.71 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 83.27 K | ||||
| Price To Book | 6.62 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 0.25 X | ||||
| Revenue | 220.94 M | ||||
| Gross Profit | 88.01 M | ||||
| EBITDA | (28.52 M) | ||||
| Net Income | (70.86 M) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 13.3 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 0.74 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 115.37 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 0.50 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 0.63 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | (2.50) X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | (11.3 M) | ||||
| Short Ratio | 3.37 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (2.92) X | ||||
| Target Price | 9.25 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 391 | ||||
| Beta | 0.19 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 59.11 M | ||||
| Total Asset | 203.72 M | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (323.07 M) | ||||
| Working Capital | (137.67 M) | ||||
| Current Asset | 62 K | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 21 K | ||||
| Z Score | -2.1 | ||||
| Annual Yield | 0.0314 % | ||||
| Net Asset | 203.72 M |
About Arena Group Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Arena Group Holdings's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Arena Group using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arena Group Holdings based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.The Arena Group Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates digital media platform the United States and internationally. The Arena Group Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in New York, New York. Arena operates under Internet Content Information classification in the United States and is traded on AMEX Exchange. It employs 333 people.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Arena Group in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Arena Group's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Arena Group options trading.
Pair Trading with Arena Group
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Arena Group position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Arena Group will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Arena Stock
| + | 0.7 | OB | Outbrain | Fiscal Quarter End 31st of December 2023 | PairCorr | |
| + | 0.82 | TC | TuanChe ADR | PairCorr |
Moving against Arena Stock
| - | 0.86 | TME | Tencent Music Entert | Fiscal Quarter End 31st of December 2023 | PairCorr | |
| - | 0.67 | EVER | EverQuote Class A | Fiscal Quarter End 31st of December 2023 | PairCorr | |
| - | 0.6 | MAX | MediaAlpha | Fiscal Quarter End 31st of December 2023 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Arena Group could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Arena Group when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Arena Group - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Arena Group Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Arena Group is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Arena Group moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Arena Group Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Arena Group can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Arena Group Piotroski F Score and Arena Group Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the Arena Group Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arena Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Arena Stock analysis
When running Arena Group's price analysis, check to measure Arena Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arena Group is operating at the current time. Most of Arena Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arena Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arena Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arena Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Arena Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arena Group. If investors know Arena will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arena Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.92) | Revenue Per Share 11.313 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.107 | Return On Assets (0.15) |
The market value of Arena Group Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arena that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arena Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arena Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arena Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arena Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arena Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arena Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arena Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.